Capitol Weekly and the CA120 series have been exploring the use of original polling to review the presidential race and the U.S. Senate contest. We are providing data-driven stories on how California voters are engaging with the election.
PPIC: Californians have deeply mixed views about the major political parties, with fewer than one in four viewing the GOP favorably and about half giving Democrats a thumbs up, according to the latest survey by the Public Policy Institute of California. About 49 percent of all adults reported a favorable impression of the Democratic party, while only 23 percent have a favorable view of the Republicans, down about 7 points since December.
Image by Tim Foster, Capitol WeeklyCalifornia’s 2014 primary election had its fair share of surprises, but none was greater than David Evans, a virtually unknown candidate for state controller who was just seven-tenths of 1 percent away from beating both Betty Yee and John Perez to capture the coveted second spot and move on to the general election. This was a shock to political insiders, most of whom had never heard of him.
California supporters of Bernie Sanders attend a rally. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)CA120: Sanders has been stronger in states like California with “open” primaries — those that allow non-Democrats voters to cast a ballot. California Democrats allow voters not registered with any other political party to vote in their primary. But the question is this: In what numbers will these non-partisans vote? Can Sanders surf this wave of support to a victory in California? The answer, according to our data, is probably not.
Republican presidential candidates at a March 3 debate. (Photo: Associated Press/Paui Sancya)CA120: Our online California poll of 1,165 high propensity Republican voters has Trump currently atop the leader board by a comfortable margin. Trump receives 41% of the vote, to Ted Cruz’s 23% and John Kasich’s 21%. A separate sample of 466 Republicans registered since the turn of the New Year has Trump ahead 53%-21%-15%, indicating that Trump’s overall lead among the expected turnout is a few points greater.
Photo: Monticello, via ShutterstockThe California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) has issued shocking assertions about the dangers of Bisphenol-A (BPA). In one sense they are right, their research findings are shocking – but only because they contradict the published scientific literature on BPA safety as well as the opinions of credible global health experts, including our own United State Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
The attitudes of voters. Illustration by Niroworld, via Shutterstock.Friday night, my wife Jodi got home after a long week. Trying to decide what we should do, she flipped through some channels, looking at the networks, a couple sports channels, a few news channels, HBO and Showtime, and then finally announced “I don’t think there’s anything good on TV, let’s go see a movie.”
The power plant in El Segundo, Calif. (Photo: Don Solomon, via Shutterstock)In less than a decade, a bipartisan view in California about the dangers of global warming has largely evaporated, with Democrats overwhelmingly seeing it as a very serious problem, while Republicans — just as overwhelmingly — are unconvinced.
One night in March 2014, state Senator Leland Yee stood before a fancy dinner thrown in San Francisco by the Society of Professional Journalists to receive the Public Official Award — for a second time. Yee, then a candidate for secretary of state, was saluted for “his courage to oppose his own Democratic Party leaders and the governor in 2013 with public criticism of efforts to weaken the California Public Records Act.” A week later, a handcuffed Yee appeared in federal court, accused of taking bribes, political racketeering and even running guns in the Philippines.
Shasta Lake in August 2014. (Photo: David Greitzer, Shutterstock)As the state suffers through its fourth year of drought, most Californians say the lack of water is the single most important environmental issue facing the state, a dramatic increase over the number who expressed similar concerns a year ago. A survey by the nonprofit Public Policy Institute of California reported that 58 percent of Californians ranked the drought as the top issue — up 23 points from July 2014 and up 50 points from July 2011.