Experts Expound: The Kamala question

Polls have for months shown that Kamala Harris would be the strong favorite should she opt-in to the 2026 governor’s race, prompting some already-declared candidates to say they would drop out. But Republicans actually seem to relish the chance to run against her, and several Dems now say they will stay in even if Harris joins the race. Which begs the question for our intrepid panel of experts:

If she got into the race today, should Kamala Harris still be the presumptive favorite to be California’s next governor? 

“‘Should’ Harris be the presumptive favorite if she gets in the governor’s race? She probably would be, but should is a different matter. Through her total flop of a presidential campaign — first Democratic nominee in 20 years to lose the popular vote, lost all seven swing states, received a lesser share of women’s votes than Biden did in ‘20 — she just turned the White House back over to Donald Trump, which is particularly hurting California. So should (that word again) we reward her by making her governor? It’s heartening that so many of the other Democratic candidates have pledged they’re not going to roll over and play dead for her if she does finally enter the race after taking her sweet time.”

“In today’s political world, I’m not sure we should presume anything. But I don’t see a challenger that would be likely to come in second with a MAGA nutball and a timeshare billionaire playing spoilers for Republican and independent votes. If for whatever reason she ended up in the general against another Democrat, though, all bets are off. I think the depth of frustration with Harris related to the 2024 campaign cannot be overstated.”

“Interesting question. First I don’t think she should be encouraged to get into the race. CA’s Governorship shouldn’t be the consultation prize. Second, I don’t think she’d be a great Governor. She didn’t like making tough decisions as AG or in the U.S. Senate. However, that wasn’t the question. In name ID she would be a force, but I don’t think she would automatically win the Primary.”

“Harris wins. Full stop. Overwhelmingly if she leans harder into her economic populist ideas like taking on price gouging. And listens hard to Latino vote.”

“Yes, for sure she would be the presumptive favorite. No one else can get the coverage and attention she would garner. And, it seems incredibly unlikely that California reporters, fearing losing access, would mount any sustained inquiry into her positions that could drag her down.”

“No. She has not shown any of the skills needed to run a state as complex as California.”

“Harris is the clear favorite if she gets in. Some candidates say they won’t drop out, but they have to say that since it would kill their fundraising and it looks incredibly weak if their candidacy was conditional. In reality you would expect maybe one or two Dem opponents if she runs – with Villaraigosa being the most significant one. Republicans may enjoy running against her for the fundraising and national attention it would bring, but they have sub-zero chances of winning the Gov’s office in 2026. Many are privately hoping for Harris to run just to put the next governor’s race to bed. Things would be much easier than a five-way tight race among the other Dem candidates going into next June if she weren’t to run.”

“She would get more than 1/3 of the Dems just based on name ID.  That is enough to be the favorite in a large field of candidates.”

“It all depends on who else joins the race. Kamala would be difficult to beat for a Democrat if most get out and it’s a small field. She shouldn’t expect anyone to be polite in the primary and the general will be brutal. It will be a shitshow in both and she will have a lot of explaining to do. She definitely can lose.”

“Kamala peaks on the day she announces her candidacy. The rest is downhill from there, as it always is with her.”

“No. Democrats are scouring around for candidates and issues that distance themselves from the 2024 debacle. Harris is the poster child for 2024 and would carry a lot of baggage into the primary. Aside from the notion that she has never been very popular in her home state, she’ll be dogged by the issue of Biden’s health in the waning days of his presidency. She was his freakin’ veep and had to see his decline up close and personal.  She has nowhere to hide from that problem.”

“Depends if her California political team of consultants + fundraising operation has already committed to her gubernatorial campaign. She has the name ID and grassroots support. Harris simply needs a seasoned, professional campaign structure engaged early on to be the presumptive favorite.”

“If Kamala Harris gets into the race for Governor, it will be because she has decided she does want to BE the Governor of California. Anything less than that personal commitment would be obvious in her demeanor and apparent to the voters and other candidates for the job. That concept of a ‘placeholder job,’ should it gain traction, is the only thing that can beat her. Everyone else who stays in would be fighting for a small slice of the pie and a second place finish in the first round. Already there are two Republicans in the race, so we are likely to have an all-Democrat run-off. Kamala still be Trump by 28% in November. Dream on Republicans.”

Our panel of experts: Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Samantha Corbin, Jon Costantino, Richard Costigan, Tim Foster, Rex Frazier, John Howard, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Steven Maviglio, Mike MeCey, Paul Mitchell, Barbara O’Connor, Jack Ohman, Kassy Perry, Matt Rexroad, Garry South, Paula Treat, Micah Weinberg, Bill Wong, Daniel Zingale