Analysis

Recall: Democrats outperforming their voter registration

An illustration of California's Sept. 14 recall election. (Felipe Sanchez, via Shutterstock)

ANALYSIS: For weeks, liberals gnashed their teeth over poll results showing Republicans almost universally highly “motivated” to vote in the recall. But then the first reports of ballots showed Democrats outperforming their levels of voter registration – currently they are 55% of returned ballots while comprising 48% of registered voters

Analysis

California’s homicide numbers can be misleading

An officer exits his vehicle prior to conducting a search in Ventura. (Photo: Glenn Highcove, via Shutterstock)

ANALYSIS: In late July, the Office of the Attorney General released Homicide in California 2020, its annual report on the state’s murders. Media outlets in California and elsewhere quickly covered the report. The story, targeting a “31 percent increase in murders, the most in 13 years,” was reported by a variety of news organizations.

Analysis

CA120: For Recall Redux, big changes since last time around

Gov. Gavin Newsom at an environmental cleanup even in Long Beach on Aug. 5.(Photo: Howard Freshman)

ANALYSIS: We’re headed for another recall election, the first in nearly 20 years. A lot of things have changed, including the number of voters who will be casting their ballots by mail. Looking back at 2003, there were only 3 million voters who received their ballots in the mail.  This cycle, all 22 million voters are getting their ballots in the mail, and we’re likely to see the vast majority of those cast by mail prior to Election Day.

Analysis

Some surprises in the handling of this year’s budget

California 's state Capitol in Sacramento. (Photo: Steven Frame, via Shutterstock)

ANALYSIS: For someone who is interested in the activities of the California Legislature and tracks the budget closely, the last two legislative sessions have brought some interesting developments, as well as a recognition of the tremendous work that legislators, staff, and the governor’s administration put into crafting the state’s spending plan each year.

Analysis

In California, could 2021 be propane’s year?

Industrial propane tanks. (Photo: RazorbackAlum, via Shutterstock)

ANALYSIS: Among the numerous advocates for a wider range of lower-carbon options in the U.S. is one group who’ve not received much attention: the propane industry. Given the trends on propane usage and production, that may very well change in 2021. Propane advocates think that their fuel is not getting the kind of attention that it deserves from policy-makers, regulators, and environmental lobbyists.

Analysis

An exodus from California? Actually, no

An artist's rendering of a California highway sign. (Image: gguy, via Shutterstock.)>

ANALYSIS: New research released by the nonpartisan California Policy Lab finds that contrary to suggestions about a mass exodus from California, most moves in 2020 happened within the state. Exits from California in 2020 largely mirrored historical patterns, while the biggest statewide change was a decrease in people moving into California.

Analysis

Battered, California GOP struggles to maintain toehold

Republicans show support for Donald Trump at a rally at the Anaheim Convention Center. (Photo: mikeledray, via Shutterstock)

Not long ago, California Republicans slugged it out with Democrats in competitive statewide campaigns and threw considerable weight into legislative policy debates. But today, after a quarter-century slide into irrelevancy and dogma, it’s reasonable to consider if the state party still has a pulse and if its future includes a revival.

Analysis

Trumped by Trump, Mike Pence heads to obscurity

Donald Trump and Mike Pence at the 2016 Republican national convention. (Photo: Mark Reinstein, via Shutterstock)

ANALYSIS: The biggest casualty of the 2020 election was, of course, Donald Trump, who became only the fifth president since the 1800s to be booted out of office after one term — and the first in 28 years. But the second most prominent victim may turn out to be Trump’s sidekick, Vice President Mike Pence.

Analysis

Survey: Voters divided on ‘split roll,’ affirmative action

An illustration of the electorate. (Image: M-SUR, via Shutterstock)

With Election Day less than two weeks away, Californians remain divided on a ballot measure that would change how commercial property is taxed. On another closely watched ballot measure, reinstating affirmative action in the public sector has gained slightly since September, but still has less than majority support.

Analysis

Housing is core issue in SF’s Wiener-Fielder Senate race

Housing in a San Francisco neighborhood. (Photo: Bertl 123, via Shutterstock)

ANALYSIS: While most electoral contests in San Francisco are a fierce fight, incumbents up for reelection tend to have an easy run. A year ago, few thought that State Senator Scott Wiener would have difficulty defending his District 11 seat. When activist and first-time candidate Jackie Fielder came in second in the spring primary – 33% to Wiener’s 56% — people started to comment on the race.

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