CA 120: For California Dems, will the past be prologue?

This weekend Democrats are meeting at their annual convention in Orange County. With just over a year before the 2026 Primary, and short of 18 months before the General Election, we wanted to take the temperature of California Democrats.

For the past month we have been fielding a poll to Democratic voters with the goal of better understanding how they are coping with the second Trump presidency, and mining for any evidence of a 2026 “Blue Wave” that could help Democrats hold their 2024 Congressional gains, and learn how they are thinking about the replacement for termed-out Governor Gavin Newsom.

The analysis benefits from having very similar questions in surveys we did in 2017 and 2018 during the first Trump presidency and leading into the midterm elections. This gives us an ability to do an apples-to-apples comparison of today’s Democratic voter to those of eight years ago.

Can Democrats Expect a Blue Wave in 2026?
To begin, we asked Democratic voters and independents who lean Democratic if they approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President. Unsurprisingly, 92% said they “strongly disapproved” while 4% simply “disapproved,” 2% were neutral, and only 2% said they approved.

While nationally we have heard that Democratic voters are frustrated with the Democratic party, and we have found dissatisfaction in California, the voters surveyed still seemed strongly supportive of Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, with results that closely match what we saw heading into the 2018 election.

While it’s a long way off, in next year’s election for your member of the United States House of Representatives, do you think you will vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? (Responses of Democrats Only)

Looking at potential national leaders heading into the midterms, we allowed respondents to name who they believe is best positioned to lead the party in the coming months. Cory Booker (who happens to be speaking at the Democratic convention this weekend) is the top choice (with 103 mentions), followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 92, Bernie Sanders at 56, Pete Buttigieg at 47 and Governor Gavin Newsom at 41.

We then asked voters how they would describe the difference in their current viewpoint and reaction to the second Trump election, compared to how they viewed and reacted to his first election in 2016, we received some rather astounding and raw responses.

Based on the hundreds of open-ended responses from Democratic voters we found most describing a sharp escalation in their emotional response to a second Trump term. In 2016 many reported they felt shock, disbelief, or a cautious “wait-and-see”; but in 2025 they reported terror, horror, fury, and a sense that “the guardrails are gone.” The dominant narrative is that what once looked like chaotic buffoonery now feels like an organized, authoritarian project that threatens democratic norms, civil rights, and even personal safety.

            Example Responses (see all 300 here)

“1,000 times the horror”
[Party: Democratic, Gender: Female, Education: Graduated from college, Ethnicity: White, Income: $25,000-$49,999, Ideology: Very Liberal]

“2016 horror and disbelief… 2024 great foreboding…”
[Party: Democratic, Gender: Female, Education: Some graduate school, Ethnicity: White, Income: $50,000-$74,999, Ideology: Moderate]

“2016 – not happy but maybe it’ll be ok. 2024 – devastating mistake by voters.”
[Party: Democratic, Gender: Female, Education: Graduated from college, Ethnicity: White, Income: $75,000-$99,999, Ideology: Moderate]

Across thousands of responses, and with varying examples, concrete worries appear again and again: a president “surrounded by yes-men,” unchecked by Congress or courts; Project 2025 and other plans to dismantle federal agencies; open attacks on the rule of law, immigrants, women, and LGBTQ+ people; and a conviction that global standing and the economy are being sacrificed for revenge politics.

Many respondents pair that fear with anger—at Trump and MAGA, but also at Democratic leaders whom they see as “weak,” “disorganized,” or too focused on “identity‐talk instead of bread-and-butter issues.”  Among these voters, mental-health language (depression, anxiety, insomnia, upping medication) surfaces repeatedly.

A notable number of answers show fatigue or resignation (“numb,” “giving up,” “just trying to protect my family”). We have seen this in previous surveys where sizeable shares of Democratic voters were expressing more nihilistic responses to the second Trump election.

After the 2016 Trump election there was a major groundswell of organizing and protests – something we did not see to the same extent after his re-election. This was supported by voter responses to the questions asking if voters participated in protests during the first Trump term, or if they have done the same after the 2024 re-election. Overall, 41% of voters said they had attended a post-2016 protest, but only 13% of voters have attended a protest since his re-election.

We then asked if Trump reached out to Democratic leaders, how they should act, and half of these voters said that they should try and find ways to work on issues with common interest, while another half said they shouldn’t give Trump any victories at all. White Democrats were more strongly supportive of trying to find common ground, while younger and minority voters were more willing to give up small policy gains, in hopes of not providing Trump with any victories. This is nearly identical to the same question in 2018.

What are voters looking for in the next Governor?
Looking at the coming Governor’s race, we began by asking voters if they wanted the next Governor to be more like the current Governor (Newsom in the 2025 survey, Jerry Brown in the 2018 survey). In both, the average Democratic respondent leaned toward a candidate more like the incumbent Democratic officeholder, but it was about 10-points stronger for Jerry Brown.  However, there was a nearly identical 50% split among voters who said that they preferred a candidate that will be more practical and competent state leader over one that is more inspiring and fights for their values.

Looking at the top priorities for Democratic voters, top ranked as a “high priority” are a Governor who is honest and can make tough decisions, followed by the ability to fight Trump, and then ability to stand up to special interests.

What would be the most important characteristics for the next Governor? (Democratic Respondents)

More practical attributes for a potential governor, like being able to balance a state budget falls to fifth at 55%, then fixing school to sixth, and so on. Ironically, in a moment where the state is facing a major budget shortfall, the issue of balancing the budget dropped 10-points from 65% ranking it as a high priority in 2018, to just 55% now.

Voters very clearly want to have a Governor who will work in Sacramento with the state legislature to create solutions, while fighting Trump at every turn. In two different questions we asked voters what they were looking for, with one lens on Sacramento and one on DC.

When looking at the candidates for governor, which of the following types of characteristics are most important to you?
Part 1 (State)

Part 2 (Federal)

Democratic voters also see much more significant risks coming out of DC than any from within the state. Even as there are pressing issues regarding the state budget, homelessness, crime, the economy and immigration, Democratic voters are much more worried about what is coming from the Trump administration than from Sacramento.

Which concerns you more as you are thinking about the next elections?

 
The Governor’s race is dominated by Kamala Harris, who is seen very positively by Democratic voters – with an 65% net favorability, slightly higher than Katie Porter who leads the poll if Harris does not run and has a 49% net favorable. Other candidates have much lower name recognition, with 40% of Democrats saying they don’t know former Assembly Speaker and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, 60% not knowing businessman Rick Caruso and 70% not knowing former Senate pro Tem Toni Atkins.

In the horserace among just the Democrats polled, Harris is winning support from nearly half, Porter is at near 30%, with all other competitors in single digits. However, this race is far from decided as there will be a major reset if Harris jumps in the contest, and if she doesn’t run, voters will be taking a fresh look at all the candidates. Additionally, a winning Democrat in the open primary system will be able to make significant gains by capturing votes from independent voters, and potentially a small number of Republicans, even in the June primary. And, depending on the composition of the race, we will have to look at the possibility that this could be the first Governor’s race in California where the Top-Two system will put two Democrats into the November runoff, which is a distinct possibility, whether Harris runs or not.

Looking past the 2026 cycle, voters are less sure about their choices for the 2028 Presidential Primary. Many are still undecided, but among those who have a preference, Governor Gavin Newsom has a small lead over Harris, at 17% for Newsom to 15% for Harris, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10% and Pete Buttigieg at 8%.

See the full results and crosstabs here.