Posts Tagged: polling
Podcast
CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: A poll from Median Strategies roiled the Los Angeles mayoral race earlier this month, showing Mayor Karen Bass with an 11 point lead over challenger Nithya Raman. The results were cited by several media outlets, and were touted by the Bass campaign before the poll was exposed as fake. Political data expert Paul Mitchell joined us to talk about how junk polls, paid influencers and strategic gaming of prediction markets can distort perceptions about a campaign.
News
Ballot curing has added an entire new layer to the already complex and stressful campaign and elections process, for both candidates and staffers. It will also now be a fact of life any time a race is close.
Podcast
CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: We have reached the end of the road – Election Day. After a years-long presidential campaign filled with twists, turns and surprises, we are at the deciding point: will the next president be former president Donald Trump, or Vice President Kamala Harris? And, which party will control congress? Does the path to control of the House run through Orange County? What does all of this mean for California’s 2026 gubernatorial race? Political data guru Paul Mitchell joins us to read the tea leaves and tell us what to expect on Election Night.
CA120
There is likely nothing more confusing to voters than the avalanche of polls that spill forth every election year. With what many consider to be America’s most crucial election in generations just days away, this lengthy piece from pollster and election data analyst Paul Mitchell is a valuable guide to understanding how polls are conducted and presented to you, the voters.
Podcast
CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: Political data expert and regular Capitol Weekly contributor Paul Mitchell joins us for a look at the most competitive congressional districts in California. The race for control of Congress is tight, and these districts could decide which party holds the House in 2025. And he tells us which polls to watch (and which to ignore) and makes his prediction in the Kamala Harris- Donald Trump race.
Analysis
As Vice President Kamala Harris takes the stage on Thursday as the official presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, she will face a short 74-day campaign, with California voters getting their ballots in just over 6 weeks.
The Capitol Weekly
Analysis
ANALYSIS – The last few weeks have been turbulent to say the least. With the dust starting to settle a bit, Political Data Inc.’s Paul Mitchell has a look inside the numbers to tell us what all this chaos could mean for the upcoming presidential election.
Podcast
CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: Veteran California political data expert Paul Mitchell joins us to talk about his recent CA120 column examining shifting behavior by California’s Latino and Asian voters. We also look at California’s confusing Presidential Primary ballot, and the recent Berkeley IGS Poll that found Rep. Barbara Lee in fourth place – behind Republican Steve Garvey – in the race to fill Sen. Feinstein’s seat.
News
Readers of Capitol Weekly understand how “blue” California is. That’s why you’re up in the middle of the night thinking about Democrat -versus-Democrat races for State Assembly while you probably can’t name the full slate of Republican statewide candidates. But what about the average California voter?
News
Institute of Governmental Studies: The tide of likely voter preferences in this year’s gubernatorial recall election has turned. The latest Berkeley IGS Poll, completed earlier this week among a sample of nearly 10,000 registered voters across California, finds just 38.5% of those most likely to participate in the recall election now intending to vote Yes to recall Governor Gavin Newsom, while 60.1% say they will be voting No to support his retention.
Image created by Andrii Yalanskyi, iStock Images. 
