Posts Tagged: polling
Podcast
CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: Veteran California political data expert Paul Mitchell joins us to talk about his recent CA120 column examining shifting behavior by California’s Latino and Asian voters. We also look at California’s confusing Presidential Primary ballot, and the recent Berkeley IGS Poll that found Rep. Barbara Lee in fourth place – behind Republican Steve Garvey – in the race to fill Sen. Feinstein’s seat.
Recent News
Readers of Capitol Weekly understand how “blue” California is. That’s why you’re up in the middle of the night thinking about Democrat -versus-Democrat races for State Assembly while you probably can’t name the full slate of Republican statewide candidates. But what about the average California voter?
News
Institute of Governmental Studies: The tide of likely voter preferences in this year’s gubernatorial recall election has turned. The latest Berkeley IGS Poll, completed earlier this week among a sample of nearly 10,000 registered voters across California, finds just 38.5% of those most likely to participate in the recall election now intending to vote Yes to recall Governor Gavin Newsom, while 60.1% say they will be voting No to support his retention.
Podcast
The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds that among likely voters, 47% favor recalling Gov. Gavin Newsom and only 50% favor his retention. Those numbers are a stark warning for a governor serving amid the most turbulent era in memory, where extreme circumstances within – and beyond – his control could impact the attitude of the electorate at any moment.
Podcast
Last week Capitol Weekly and the McGeorge Capital Center for Law & Policy presented a Post-Mortem of the 2020 Election, a half-day online conference in which a score of experts and insiders discussed the results of the election and provided a look-ahead at what they mean for 2021 – and beyond. This event was held on Thursday, November 5. We broadcast audio from each of the presentations as individual episodes of the Capitol Weekly Podcast.
News
A pair of Nov. 3 ballot measures seeks to confer voting rights on two wildly disparate groups of Californians — prisoners and teenagers. Prop. 17 would amend the state constitution to restore voting rights to prison inmates who have completed their sentences. Prop. 18, another constitutional amendment, would allow 17-year-olds to vote in primary and special elections if they become 18 by the next general election.
News
In our culture, conspiracy theories are running rampant, and elections seem to be particularly prone to the craziest among them. Republicans, led by the president, have claimed that vote-by-mail is unsafe, non-citizens are registered to vote and casting ballots. Ballot “harvesting” is causing rampant voter fraud, President Trump says, and the system is being rigged against him. Even Attorney General Bill Barr claimed, incorrectly, that vote-by-mail eliminates the secret nature of voting in the US.
News
Our November tracking poll for California’s 2020 presidential primary election shows some significant changes in the field, with the national field gelling around four major candidates and the potential havoc of new candidates entering the race. The poll, in the field since April, has now surveyed over 7,500 likely voters, utilizing data supplied by Political Data Inc. It uses an online survey emailed directly to voters deemed likely to vote in the March Democratic primary.
News
In the 2016 and 2018 election cycles, Capitol Weekly conducted several surveys for the primary and general elections. We examined voters’ opinions on the contests for president, U.S. Senate, governor, Legislature and Congress, as well as on ballot measureas before California voters. In total, we heard from over 100,000 voters, providing us with a significant dataset of voters and their preferences.
News
A number of California’s Republican-held House seats face fierce challenges from Democrats, and the tally of votes in these tight races may not be completed for days, even weeks, following the election. That’s the message in Capitol Weekly’s survey of more than 20,000 mail-in voters across California who cast their ballots prior to election day.
