Posts Tagged: polling
An image depicting the varied responses in political polling. (Illustration: Tim Foster/Capitol Weekly),
ANALYSIS: The public opinion polling industry in many ways is at a crossroads. For years public polls were run with live telephone interviews using a system of “random digit dialing” or RDD, which allowed a poll to be based on samples which would be naturally balanced since all potential voters had the same probability to be administered a phone survey.
People at a 2016 political rally in Anaheim for Republican presidential contender Donald Trump. (Photo: mikeledray, via Shutterstock)
Throughout the 2016 election cycle, Capitol Weekly conducted several polls. Two of them, one during the primary and the other during the general, were targeted to voters right after they had mailed in their ballots. In total, more than 80,000 Californians participated in these surveys. Now, we’ve gone back asked these voters how they feel about the candidates they backed and about the issues, and we sought their perceptions about the political climate. We’ll start with the Trump voters.
Telephone poles with their land-line wires fade into the sunset of a California highway. (Photo: Ethan Daniels.)
For decades, polling relied on a strong pool of easily reached voters with a traditional land-line telephone. Before caller-ID became prevalent, nearly every call was answered as long as someone was home. But now more voters are untethered from traditional phones (I haven’t had a land line since 1998), and those who do still have them complain that most incoming calls are from telemarketers.
Image by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly
One of the state’s most respected polls has begun incorporating online surveys for the first time, underscoring the increasing difficulty of relying on telephone questioning. The Field Poll, which was founded in 1947, started using online surveys to gather voter opinion on nine of the 17 statewide ballot propositions that will appear on the Nov. 8 ballot.
A rally for Democratic presidential contender Bernie Sanders in Irvine, May 22. (Photo: mikeledray, via Shutterstock)
Polls showed Californians ‘Feeling the Bern,’ shortly before the state’s June 7 primary. Bernie Sanders had pulled even or surged slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race after barnstorming from Chico to Chula Vista. But early results on Election Day showed Clinton crushing Sanders by more than 20 percentage points, a margin that later narrowed to 12.6 points.
Presidential candidates. (Illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)
CA120: With just hours until polls close in California, the crucial Democratic presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders appears to be tightening. On the Republican side, the unopposed presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump is trying to show that he can consolidate the Republican electorate behind his candidacy.
CA120: Even with 34 U.S. Senate candidates on the ballot, an exit poll of absentee voters shows that Kamala Harris is lapping the field. Slightly more than half report having voted for Harris, more than three times the level of support for her closest rival in Tuesday’s top-two primary, fellow Democrat Loretta Sanchez. Republicans would need a strong late consolidation of support behind Duf Sundheim to have any hope of preventing an all-Democratic general election.
A portion of California's June 7 ballot. (Photo: Tim Foster/Capitol Weekly)
When nonpartisan voters were asked how, exactly, they were going to get a Democratic ballot, we saw evidence of widespread confusion. Nearly 60% of those surveyed either incorrectly thought that the Democratic candidates would be on their ballot — as happens in other open primary contests — or they weren’t sure how to vote in the Democratic presidential race.
Capitol Weekly and the CA120 series have been exploring the use of original polling to review the presidential race and the U.S. Senate contest. We are providing data-driven stories on how California voters are engaging with the election.
The California state Capitol in Sacramento. (Photo: Shutterstock)
OPINION: With more than a dozen major tax measures moving through the Legislature or toward the November 2016 ballot, California’s perennial debate about taxes is set to begin anew — with millions of dollars in political campaigns preparing to shape how the state will raise billions of dollars in revenue, and provide public services, for years to come.