Gaming the system: Paul Mitchell on the impact of prediction markets and bad polls

CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: A poll from Median Strategies roiled the Los Angeles mayoral race earlier this month, showing Mayor Karen Bass with an 11 point lead over challenger Nithya Raman. The results were cited by several media outlets, and were touted by the Bass campaign before the poll was exposed as fake. When contacted, Median Strategies posted a statement that their polling had been “a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.”

Social experiment or not, the poll did impact the race – at least in the short term – and certainly impacted election prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Political data expert Paul Mitchell joined us to talk about how junk polls, paid influencers and strategic gaming of prediction markets can distort perceptions about a campaign. Plus, who had the Worst Week in California Politics?

2:01 “That’s the Pacific Ocean”

4:35 Capitol Weekly Internship

7:30 Death penalty

9:04 Paul Mitchell

10:23 Bogus polling

13:37 Picked up by media

17:02 “Everybody’s a pundit”

20:48 Prediction markets

22:13 $7M bet on Spencer Pratt AFTER the election

23:56 Could prediction markets replace polling?

27:15 How is this legal?

30:05 Predictit

31:35 A note about gaming

34:01 Duane Dichiara debt

34:48 Scott Lay’s election pool

35:33 Junk polls designed to generate coverage

38:28 “Traditionally, your campaign’s internal polling is some of the highest quality polling”

41:03 What California race should people be watching more closely?

43:15 The split in the Democratic Party

47:14 #WWCA