Posts Tagged: candidates
News
In the 2016 and 2018 election cycles, Capitol Weekly conducted several surveys for the primary and general elections. We examined voters’ opinions on the contests for president, U.S. Senate, governor, Legislature and Congress, as well as on ballot measureas before California voters. In total, we heard from over 100,000 voters, providing us with a significant dataset of voters and their preferences.
News
Few Californians are familiar with the state Democratic Party’s Assembly District Election Meetings, known as ADEMs. Even fewer – under 40,000 – vote in them. But as Democrats in 2019 wield nearly absolute power in state policy, the ADEMs – grassroots, internal elections held every two years designed to connect party insiders with the base – are gaining attention as a battleground between the party’s progressive and moderate blocs.
News
Because it’s set an earlier date for primary election voting, California is now destined to play a more important role in 2020’s presidential campaigns. Candidates who ignore that new fact of political life will “get their asses kicked,” says one of the state’s top political consultants. “People in California are voting on the morning of the Iowa caucuses,” added campaign strategist Ace Smith.
News
More and more of them are flooding your mailbox. They are usually bright, colorful, and nonsensical. Political mailers. What else? It’s the season, after all. Even in the age of texting and twitter, old-fashioned paper still has its charm for campaign strategists, especially in-down ballot races where a shotgun approach is not useful.
Analysis
Is something wrong with public polling in California? The 2018 election season has been raucous, even weeks before the first votes are cast. And one of the contributing factors has been the seemingly erratic public polling, particularly in the top-of-the-ticket races. The veteran political observers at CalBuzz have called this year’s polling a “muddled mess.”
Analysis
It hasn’t been long since we learned of a presidential campaign that used personal information gleaned from Facebook apps to enhance voter files, and target voters and their friends with political messaging. This campaign was so sophisticated that they could identify people who would be swayed by particular messages, were more persuaded by messages about immigration, education, or health care, were likely or unlikely to vote, or even were likely to volunteer or donate money.
Analysis
ANALYSIS: With five months to the 2018 gubernatorial primary election, there is a natural tendency to try and find the single major factor that will determine the outcome. Will it be Donald Trump, absentee voters, young people, the gas tax, racially polarized voting, the open primary, North versus South, the growing number of independent voters, the new registrants since President Trump was elected, or 25% of the electorate who registered to vote in 2016? The fact is, it will be all of these things.
News
With the recent Democratic wins in traditional bellwether gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, a massive pickup-in the Virginia Legislature, wins in several mayoral races and other assorted gains, the pundits appear locked into the narrative that we are headed for a wave election. This would follow the pattern we have seen previously, in which the mid-term elections serve as rebalancing against the party in power. But what does all this mean for California?
News
Much of redistricting law is arcane and technical. But often what seems like a little detail can become a significant factor in how the lines will be drawn. Take, for example, prisoners. The U.S. Census counts prisoners just like any other part of the overall population. The Census captures people at their “usual residence,” meaning the place where they live and sleep most days.
News
With a flood of expected gubernatorial candidates on the Democratic side, and a lack of Republican candidates lining up for 2018, many are convinced that we are headed for another Democratic intraparty runoff. So, again, it is prediction time. And again, I will go with the math and say the general election of the 2018 governor’s race will follow tradition and feature a Democrat versus Republican.
Attendees at a 2018 political rally in Santa Ana. (Photo: Juan Camilo Bernal, via Shutterstock)
