Posts Tagged: candidates

News

CA120: Conspiracy theories may backfire — on both parties

A photo illustration of whisper campaigns and conspiracies. (Image: Valery Sidelnykov, via Shutterstock)

In our culture, conspiracy theories are running rampant, and elections seem to be particularly prone to the craziest among them. Republicans, led by the president, have claimed that vote-by-mail is unsafe, non-citizens are registered to vote and casting ballots. Ballot “harvesting” is causing rampant voter fraud, President Trump says, and the system is being rigged against him.  Even Attorney General Bill Barr claimed, incorrectly, that vote-by-mail eliminates the secret nature of voting in the US.

News

CA primary: Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy night

A Sacramento political rally for presidential contender Pete Buttigieg, who has since dropped from the race. (Photo: Chris Allan, via Shutterstock)

For the past year, we’ve been conducting tracking polling of the dozens of candidates for the Democratic nomination.  A consistent thread in those surveys was change: The front runners shifted from former Vice President Joe Biden to Massachusetts Sen.Elizabeth Warren to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Yet, everything has changed in the last 36 hours, and we are now set for one of the most tumultuous California election nights in recent history.

News

in California’s elections, progressives try to elbow in

Emanuel Gonzales, a progressive candidate, campaigns in the 32nd Congressional District. (Photo: Gonzales campaign)

There are a growing number of candidates who describe themselves as progressives. They have varied backgrounds but have one thing in common — their chances of actually winning are very, very small. Across California, more and more people are opting to run for higher office, seizing onto the theories of change spearheaded by progressives like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

News

CA120: A crucial look at voters’ second choices

Presidential contender Elizabeth Warren at a 2019 rally in San Diego. (Photo: John Hancock, via Shutterstock)

For the past year, Capitol Weekly has conducted over 10,000 surveys of likely Democratic primary election voters. These surveys have emailed Democratic and nonpartisan voters each month, asking them to complete a survey, and tracked their responses back to their voter registration to allow us to analyze candidate support by ethnicity, age, partisanship, and other factors.

News

Our political polling shifts into high gear for 2020

Attendees at a 2018 political rally in Santa Ana. (Photo: Juan Camilo Bernal, via Shutterstock)

In the 2016 and 2018 election cycles, Capitol Weekly conducted several surveys for the primary and general elections. We examined voters’ opinions on the contests for president, U.S. Senate, governor, Legislature and Congress, as well as on ballot measureas before California voters. In total, we heard from over 100,000 voters, providing us with a significant dataset of voters and their preferences.

News

ADEMs are crucial — and a bit of a mystery

Gov. Gavin Newsom addresses a January ADEM gathering in San Francisco. (Photo: California Democratic Party, via Bay City Beacon)

Few Californians are familiar with the state Democratic Party’s Assembly District Election Meetings, known as ADEMs. Even fewer – under 40,000 – vote in them. But as Democrats in 2019 wield nearly absolute power in state policy, the ADEMs – grassroots, internal elections held every two years designed to connect party insiders with the base – are gaining attention as a battleground between the party’s progressive and moderate blocs.

News

Early primary ratchets up the pressure

Political buttons emblazoned with a message for voters. (Photo illustration: Digital Storm, via Shutterstock)

Because it’s set an earlier date for primary election voting, California is now destined to play a more important role in 2020’s presidential campaigns. Candidates who ignore that new fact of political life will “get their asses kicked,” says one of the state’s top political consultants. “People in California are voting on the morning of the Iowa caucuses,” added campaign strategist Ace Smith.

News

Political mailers pour in

Mail boxes all in a row in rural California. (Photo: Ant Clausen)

More and more of them are flooding your mailbox.  They are usually bright, colorful, and nonsensical. Political mailers.  What else?  It’s the season, after all. Even in the age of texting and twitter, old-fashioned paper still has its charm for campaign strategists, especially in-down ballot races where a shotgun approach is not useful.

Analysis

CA120: What’s wrong with public polling?

Illustration by Tashatuvango, via Shutterstock.

Is something wrong with public polling in California? The 2018 election season has been raucous, even weeks before the first votes are cast.  And one of the contributing factors has been the seemingly erratic public polling, particularly in the top-of-the-ticket races. The veteran political observers at CalBuzz have called this year’s polling a “muddled mess.”

Analysis

CA120: The hard truths about data

Investigators probe the London premises of Cambridge Analytica last week, after a search warrant was issued by a High Court judge. (Photo: Yui Mok/Press Association, via AP)

It hasn’t been long since we learned of a presidential campaign that used personal information gleaned from Facebook apps to enhance voter files, and target voters and their friends with political messaging. This campaign was so sophisticated that they could identify people who would be swayed by particular messages, were more persuaded by messages about immigration, education, or health care, were likely or unlikely to vote, or even were likely to volunteer or donate money.

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