Experts Expound: Is it Trump or Clinton?

(Ed’s Note: This installment of Experts Expound made it into our special print edition last month but, because of an editing error, it didn’t get posted online. So, belatedly, here it is.)

“Who wins the presidential race, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, and why?”

Hillary Clinton, because getting venereal disease is better than getting cancer.

Donald Trump wins by a hair.

There aren’t enough angry white men in America to elect Trump. Clinton by a bigger margin then her husband ever got.

Hillary Clinton.  Because the bark of the disgruntled voter in America is worse than its bite.

Hillary Clinton (unless the Russians hack the election). Because Donald Trump is a bad joke and the most irresponsible candidate ever put up by a major party for the presidency in American history. I say that as a Republican.

Hillary wins because folks desperately want to elect Bill to a third term!

Hillary Clinton by the sheer fact that she is not, to quote any number of people a psychopath.

California aside, Trump wins. Here’s why: Many people are offended both by Clinton’s continuous lying and by Trump’s personality defects. But when forced to choose they shy away from the lies and pick Trump. People will choose the nutcase over the gangster. They just won’t admit it in public.

HRC wins because the country cannot afford a pathological liar & bully running the country.  I actually think there will be record turnout, driven by fear.

Hillary wins for two reasons: the inexorable march of ethnic demographics in this state-by-state Electoral College election, and the vainglorious personality of Donald Trump, that has toxically and indelibly defined him, trapping him in his 40% electoral base. I think.

Hillary Clinton in a relative landslide

Trump is toxic – he’s alienated Latinos and voters of color as well as college educated suburban Republicans. The Republican base is dispirited – many Republicans are torn about who to vote for president. This will have a major impact on GOP enthusiasm and will affect GOP turnout – tipping the race even more Democratic.

Hillary Clinton’s sophisticated operation will out-math Donald Trump’s ideology-focused crew.

Clinton, easily. Trump overplayed the hate card in the primaries to successfully corner the old white male conservative Republican bigot vote, which he will retain in November. But in so doing, he damaged himself badly with everyone else, leaving no feasible road to 270 electoral votes. He is toast.

California voters already went through this in 2002 when it was between Gray Davis and Bill Simon, only this time the level of disgust is much greater.  If Trump was not truly insane he could actually win, but in the end Hilary probably takes it.  Gary Johnson makes her victory margin much closer, and voters will reinforce their anger at having to choose between two incredibly bad candidates by keeping the Senate in Republican hands – but only by a slim margin.  Bottom line is neither party will have a mandate, nothing will be accomplished in Washington and both parties will blame the other one for two years.  In other words, more of the same.  However, if somehow hell freezes over and Trump actually wins, Congress will unite to simply overrule everything he tries until they begin impeachment hearings by January 2018.

The people from whom we solicited opinions: Andrew Acosta, Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, Mike Belote, Mike Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, Richard Costigan, J Dale Debber, Bryce Docherty, Mike Donovan, Rex Frazier, Nicole Mahrt Ganley, Sandy Harrison, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Jason  Kinney,  Steven Maviglio, Mike Madrid, Mike MeCey, Jacob Mejia, Aaron McLear, Paul Mitchell, Barbara O’Connor, Matt Rexroad, Mike Roth,  Sheri Sadler, Roger Salazar, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Garry South, Kevin Spillane, Paula Treat,  Ben Tulchin, Angie Wei.




Want to see more stories like this? Sign up for The Roundup, the free daily newsletter about California politics from the editors of Capitol Weekly. Stay up to date on the news you need to know.

Sign up below, then look for a confirmation email in your inbox.


Support for Capitol Weekly is Provided by: