Posts Tagged: turnout
News
Heading into Election Day we have seen shifts nationally that appear to advantage Republicans, putting the GOP on track to regain control of Congress and pushing a number of competitive races in California into “toss-up” territory. But with Republicans knocking on the door of potential gains, even despite a redistricting that appeared to reinforce Democratic districts and weaken Republican-held seats, could their own messaging on vote by mail get in the way?
News
The state’s House delegation – now at 53, but likely to drop by one seat after the new redistricting – stood at 46 Democrats and only seven Republicans after the 2018 elections. But last year, Republicans captured four seats from Democrats — which caught political observers by surprise.
News
As has been reported in Capitol Weekly, the early vote has been dominated by Democratic voters. This is in direct contrast to every other election in California history in which Republicans have over-performed in the early returns, leaving Democrats to play catch-up in the late mail and Election Day vote.
News
Voter participation dramatically increased in California in the 2018 midterm elections, part of a nationwide trend. About 51.9% of California’s 25.1 million eligible voters hit the polls in the 2018 general election, up from 36.6% in 2014, the previous midterm election, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
News
There are plenty of things to look at now that California counties have updated their voter files with the 2018 general election vote history. This is our first chance to see what really happened, as opposed to what people thought had happened based on the outcomes.
Podcast
Elections expert Mindy Romero of the California Civic Engagement Project joins Capitol Weekly’s John Howard and Tim Foster to chat about California’s primary election turnout and what we might expect to see in November.
Podcast
The 2018 primary election is right around the corner. And with stories of higher turnout and a Democratic wave in states like Virginia and Alabama, many political consultants and observers are expecting to see some higher turnout in California this June, with a potentially strong Democratic and Latino surge.
News
With the recent Democratic wins in traditional bellwether gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, a massive pickup-in the Virginia Legislature, wins in several mayoral races and other assorted gains, the pundits appear locked into the narrative that we are headed for a wave election. This would follow the pattern we have seen previously, in which the mid-term elections serve as rebalancing against the party in power. But what does all this mean for California?
News
Any sound voter analysis tries to identify prior events that hopefully serve to predict future voter behavior. For this we examine several past elections, including the gubernatorial elections we mentioned in Part I, and other recent presidential primaries. But each appears somewhat flawed as a predictor of what the 2018 primary will look like.
News
Immediately after the 2016 there were a number of people and organizations that made quick analyses of the electorate, and what happened. Here in California, we appeared to be bucking a national trend: While the Republican ticket over performed in key swing states on the East Coast and upper mid-west, California saw Democrats regain legislative super-majorities in both houses, hold swing congressional seats and make Republicans appear more vulnerable than they have in many years.
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