Posts Tagged: turnout
Ballot boxes in Foster City for the November 2020 general election. (Photo: MariaX, via Shutterstock)
The state’s House delegation – now at 53, but likely to drop by one seat after the new redistricting – stood at 46 Democrats and only seven Republicans after the 2018 elections. But last year, Republicans captured four seats from Democrats — which caught political observers by surprise.
An image of California voting materials. (Photo: Jason Raff, via Shutterstock)
As has been reported in Capitol Weekly, the early vote has been dominated by Democratic voters. This is in direct contrast to every other election in California history in which Republicans have over-performed in the early returns, leaving Democrats to play catch-up in the late mail and Election Day vote.
A 2018 political rally at San Francisco City Hall. (Photo: Sheila Fitzgerald, via Shutterstock)
Voter participation dramatically increased in California in the 2018 midterm elections, part of a nationwide trend. About 51.9% of California’s 25.1 million eligible voters hit the polls in the 2018 general election, up from 36.6% in 2014, the previous midterm election, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
An illustration suggesting the variations in the voting population. (Image: Julian Tromeur, via Shutterstock)
There are plenty of things to look at now that California counties have updated their voter files with the 2018 general election vote history. This is our first chance to see what really happened, as opposed to what people thought had happened based on the outcomes.
Mindy Romero of the Califorrnia Civic Engagement Project. (Photo: Scott Duncan, Capitol Weekly)
Elections expert Mindy Romero of the California Civic Engagement Project joins Capitol Weekly’s John Howard and Tim Foster to chat about California’s primary election turnout and what we might expect to see in November.
Attendees at a 2016 political rally in Santa Monica. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
The 2018 primary election is right around the corner. And with stories of higher turnout and a Democratic wave in states like Virginia and Alabama, many political consultants and observers are expecting to see some higher turnout in California this June, with a potentially strong Democratic and Latino surge.
Former President Barack Obama, right, waves to the crowd along with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov., Ralph Northam, during an October rally in Richmond, Va. (Photo: Steve Helber/AP)
With the recent Democratic wins in traditional bellwether gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, a massive pickup-in the Virginia Legislature, wins in several mayoral races and other assorted gains, the pundits appear locked into the narrative that we are headed for a wave election. This would follow the pattern we have seen previously, in which the mid-term elections serve as rebalancing against the party in power. But what does all this mean for California?
A Ventura County voter casts a ballot in the June 2016 primary. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)
Any sound voter analysis tries to identify prior events that hopefully serve to predict future voter behavior. For this we examine several past elections, including the gubernatorial elections we mentioned in Part I, and other recent presidential primaries. But each appears somewhat flawed as a predictor of what the 2018 primary will look like.
An illustration of California's flag. (Lukasz Stefanski, Shutterstock)
Immediately after the 2016 there were a number of people and organizations that made quick analyses of the electorate, and what happened. Here in California, we appeared to be bucking a national trend: While the Republican ticket over performed in key swing states on the East Coast and upper mid-west, California saw Democrats regain legislative super-majorities in both houses, hold swing congressional seats and make Republicans appear more vulnerable than they have in many years.
Latinos taking the Pledge of Allegiance in Los Angeles. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
To set the record straight, we are talking about full U.S. citizens, not some fictional “illegal” voters. There are 3.8 million foreign born voters on the California voter file, including 1.4 million born in Latin America. Each of these has had their eligibility verified by their county registrars, and by either the Social Security Administration, the California Department of Motor Vehicles, or with a valid state identification (generally a driver’s license) presented at their polling place the first time they vote.