Posts Tagged: primary election
Dermonstrators in front of the U.S. Post Office in Torrance protesting federal funding cuts. (Photo: Vince360, via Shutterstock)
Vote-by-mail ballots have been sent to all registered voters in Amador County, with Solano reporting they will be mailing ballots today, while Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego counties — and maybe others – will be mailing next week. These counties are getting ahead of the Oct. 5 deadline for California counties to mail ballots. In other states, meanwhile, voting has been taking place for weeks.
A sign at a political rally urging Democrats to register to vote. (Photo: AlessandraRC, via Shutterstock)
Despite the several avenues for nonpartisans to obtain a presidential primary ballot, we now have the data from all 58 counties. Remarkably, only 9% of California’s growing independent and vote-by-mail population have successfully obtained a partisan presidential primary ballot. For 91% of nonpartisan voters, there is no presidential race on the ballot they received in the mail.
Presidential contender Elizabeth Warren at a 2019 rally in San Diego. (Photo: John Hancock, via Shutterstock)
For the past year, Capitol Weekly has conducted over 10,000 surveys of likely Democratic primary election voters. These surveys have emailed Democratic and nonpartisan voters each month, asking them to complete a survey, and tracked their responses back to their voter registration to allow us to analyze candidate support by ethnicity, age, partisanship, and other factors.
Voter registration forms at the Santa Cruz County registrar's office. (Photo: Political Data, Inc.)
About 4 million-plus independent voters who are eligible to vote in the Democratic Primary will see no presidential candidates at all on their ballots. What?? Yes. In March 2020, in one of the hottest primary elections in recent history, where California is set to play a more important role than usual as the largest state on Super Tuesday, there will be approximately 3.5 million voters receiving blank presidential ballots.
Voters in their booths casting ballots in a Los Angeles election. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)
One constant in California elections is change. In the past 20 years, we’ve seen changes to when the primary is held, then changed back, then back again. We’ve seen an open primary, then another version of the open primary. We shook up the Legislature with term limits, then imposed different term limits. We have moved increasingly to vote by mail, shifting the timeline of our elections.
Attendees at a 2018 political rally in Santa Ana. (Photo: Juan Camilo Bernal, via Shutterstock)
In the 2016 and 2018 election cycles, Capitol Weekly conducted several surveys for the primary and general elections. We examined voters’ opinions on the contests for president, U.S. Senate, governor, Legislature and Congress, as well as on ballot measureas before California voters. In total, we heard from over 100,000 voters, providing us with a significant dataset of voters and their preferences.
Donald Trump at a 2016 political rally in Costa Mesa, Orange County. (Photo: mikeledray, via Shutterstock)
With the coming 2020 Presidential primary, all eyes are on the plethora of Democratic candidates joining the fray, and the big possibility that an early California contest could catapult one or more contenders past Super Tuesday.
With all this activity on the left, few are looking at what could be going on with the Republican side of the ticket. Could there be something in California for a Republican challenger to President Donald Trump?
The sign outside a Sacramento voting center. (Photo: Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)
Since 2015 Capitol Weekly has been conducting polling to inform readers about policy and politics in the Golden State. This latest installment is an exit poll of voters done by Capitol Weekly using data and tools from Political Data, Inc. This polling focuses on early voters who cast ballots in the mail or at early voting centers. The full survey includes more than 11,000 respondents surveyed over a three-week period of ballot returns.
Image: California Secretary of State
There’s a lot going on here: A fifth of the electorate has already voted by mail, and more mailed ballots are coming in all the time. A lot of millennials got signed up through the registration program at the DMV, but what impact will that have on the contests? It looks like the SF Bay Area will outperform — again — L.A., and it’s still not clear whether a gaggle of GOP congressional incumbents are really vulnerable.
A voter casts a ballot in the 2016 election in Ventura County. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)
The chatter online and in the media is all about the June 5 Primary Election. But, for those of us working in these races, the election has been ongoing for weeks. In fact, as of Memorial Day weekend, 1.25 million California voters have cast ballots, approximately 20% of the expected total turnout of by-mail and poll voters.