An illustration suggesting the variations in the voting population. (Image: Julian Tromeur, via Shutterstock)There are plenty of things to look at now that California counties have updated their voter files with the 2018 general election vote history. This is our first chance to see what really happened, as opposed to what people thought had happened based on the outcomes.
Kevin de León at the Hollywood Walk of Fame earlier this year. (Photo: Featureflash Photography)Our recent Sextant Strategies & Research/Capitol Weekly poll of 1,554 likely voters shows just how significant a challenge Kevin de León faces in 2018. Nearly half the electorate has never heard of him, and of those who have, his favorability-versus-unfavorability ratings are about even. A hypothetical, Feinstein-De León matchup for both the primary and general elections shows Feinstein with better than a 2-to-1 advantage.
A Ventura County voter casts a ballot in the June 2016 primary. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)Any sound voter analysis tries to identify prior events that hopefully serve to predict future voter behavior. For this we examine several past elections, including the gubernatorial elections we mentioned in Part I, and other recent presidential primaries. But each appears somewhat flawed as a predictor of what the 2018 primary will look like.
An illustration of California's flag. (Lukasz Stefanski, Shutterstock)Immediately after the 2016 there were a number of people and organizations that made quick analyses of the electorate, and what happened. Here in California, we appeared to be bucking a national trend: While the Republican ticket over performed in key swing states on the East Coast and upper mid-west, California saw Democrats regain legislative super-majorities in both houses, hold swing congressional seats and make Republicans appear more vulnerable than they have in many years.
The Republican elephant and the Democratic donkey face off. (Illustration, Victor Moussa/Shutterstock)With a flood of expected gubernatorial candidates on the Democratic side, and a lack of Republican candidates lining up for 2018, many are convinced that we are headed for another Democratic intraparty runoff. So, again, it is prediction time. And again, I will go with the math and say the general election of the 2018 governor’s race will follow tradition and feature a Democrat versus Republican.
Latinos at a Los Angeles demonstration on immigration policy. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)This story is really about two populations that we have known could, someday, dominate California elections: Millennials and Latinos. The Latino vote has been repeatedly spoken of as a political “sleeping giant,” evoking the sense that this population could awaken and shake the foundations of our elections.
People at a May rally of Republicans in Anaheim. (Photo: Mike Ledray, Shutterstock)Prior to the June Primary, California experienced a massive surge in voter registration. More than 2.3 million voters registered, either for the first time, or as a re-registration. This was not only larger than any other primary election in the state’s history, it was larger than any general election. As measured by absolute growth of the voter file, the nearest comparison was the 1980 primary in which former California Governor Ronald Regan was running for the Republican Party nomination.
A freeway sign to a Silicon Valley turnoff. (Photo illustration: boscorelli, via Shutterstock) For voters in California’s 17th Congressional District, the Democratic match-up will be familiar. The Silicon Valley region is gearing up for yet another race between incumbent Congressman Mike Honda and challenger Ro Khanna, who nearly took the seat from Honda in the 2014 midterms. That year, they faced each other in the primary and, again, in the general election — which Honda won.
Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton at a May 5 East Los Angeles College rally, Monterey Park. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)As speculation grows about Hillary Clinton’s choice for a VP running mate, one name keeps popping up, at least in California – Congressman Xavier Becerra, 58, who was born and raised in Sacramento.
Voters in Ventura County cast ballots during a recent election. (Photo: Spirit of America, Shutterstock)California’s clogged, high-stakes November ballot is riveting voters’ attention – and raising fears among those who have to count the votes. It’s a perfect storm: Intense interest in the presidential general election, a deluge of six dozen ballot in initiatives cleared for circulation, labor-intensive signature-verification requirements and the likelihood that the potential initiatives will be submitted in a tight time window, thus further straining resources.