Republicans’ California losing streak comparatively not that bad

With his top two finish in the March primary, U.S. Senate candidate and former Los Angeles Dodger Steve Garvey is now trying to become the first Republican to win a statewide race in California in 18 years.

Eighteen years. A losing streak that long has California Republicans privately wondering if they can ever be relevant in the Golden State again.

But while the GOP’s California drought is unquestionably bad – Republicans have lost 38 consecutive statewide contests since 2008, the worst active streak for the party in any state – it actually pales in comparison to the Democrats’ current ineptitude in more than half a dozen states.

Dr. Eric Ostermeier, a research fellow at the University of Minnesota’s Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs who runs a non-partisan political news site called Smart Politics, tracks statewide election results. He told Capitol Weekly that the California Republicans’ losing streak is only tied for the eighth worst in the country – and the seven longer current statewide droughts all involve Democrats.

Texas Democrats currently hold the ignominious distinction of the longest losing streak at the state level: 166 statewide losses since 1996, including seats on the State Supreme Court and Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, both of which are elected at-large and on partisan tickets.

The next worst are Oklahoma Democrats, with 54 statewide electoral defeats since 2008.

Sharing the Bronze are Idaho Democrats, with 47 statewide losses since 2004, and South Dakota Democrats, with 47 more statewide losses since 2010.

In fifth place, you have Utah Democrats, who have lost 42 statewide races since 1998, followed by Alabama Democrats, who have lost 41 statewide contests since 2018.

South Carolina Democrats have one more consecutive statewide loss than California Republicans – 39 – all since 2008.

Tied with California Republicans at 38 consecutive statewide losses are Wyoming Democrats (since 2008) and North Dakota Democrats (since 2014).

California Republicans far and away currently have for the worst statewide losing streak in their party. The next worse state is Connecticut, with 29 consecutive statewide losses for the GOP there since 2008.

Republicans in New York and Rhode Island have each lost 28 consecutive races (since 2004 for New York and since 2010 for Rhode Island). Minnesota Republicans have lost 26 consecutive statewide races since 2008, New Mexico 21 since 2018 and Delaware 20 since 2016.

“It should be noted that one party’s drought usually equals another party’s winning streak, but that is not always the case,” Ostermeier wrote in an email to Capitol Weekly. “For example, in Rhode Island, Republicans have lost 28 straight races since 2010 but Democrats have won only 22 in a row since 2012 because independent Lincoln Chafee won the governorship in 2010.”

Ostermeier also noted that “(T)here are much bigger state losing streaks across history than those I have listed, particularly during the pre-Civil Rights Amendment in the Deep South. I don’t have actual tallies for those, but many states in the South were essentially one-party states for several decades.”

So while things right now are not great for California Republicans, the fact is it really could be worse. A lot worse.