Paul Mitchell: Election Update – Ten weeks to go

CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: Political data guru and “District Whisperer” Paul Mitchell joins us for a status update on the November election. Since Paul’s last visit to the podcast we’ve had a sea change: the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade has galvanized the Democratic electorate, and seems to have overturned conventional expectations about Midterm elections. Polling, and the results in elections held since the Dobbs decision was published appear to give Democrats the edge in a year that, only months ago, was projected to see a Red Wave.

We also ask him about the HOT topics: what about lawn signs, and is Gavin Newsom running for president? And, we mark a somber anniversary. Paul’s best friend, noted California political analyst, pundit and data expert Scott Lay died almost one year ago. We remember Scott, and wonder what he would have made of the past year.

Episode Notes

1:13 NY politics v. CA politics

2:46 Obligatory Alex Vassar reference

3:07 CA Primary rundown

8:44 Trends in CA’s upcoming congressional election

11:07 What, if anything, do last week’s Primaries tell us?


20:22 IS Gavin Newsom running for President?

25:43: What are Lanhee Chen’s chances of winning the Controller’s race?

29:31 Remembering Scott Lay

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