News

Polls vs prediction markets: Contrasting perspectives on the governor’s race

Congressman Eric Swalwell outside of the Capitol Weekly office. Photo by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly

Two Republicans lead polling in the California gubernatorial race, but major prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and ForecastEx all say it’s Congressman Eric Swalwell’s race to lose. Why are their predictions so different? Which is more likely to be correct? Might prediction markets and the wisdom of the crowds threaten pollsters who have taken a beating in recent elections?

Podcast

Covering the Capitol, with Lia Russell of the Sacramento Bee

Rich Ehisen (L) and Lia Russell (R) in the Capitol Weekly office. Photo by Tim Foster

CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: Today’s guest is Sacramento Bee reporter Lia Russell. Russell covers the governor for The Bee’s Capitol Bureau, and was part of the team that broke the story of Dana Williamson’s arrest last year.  We asked about that story, covering the capitol, and what it was like to cover politics in their earlier gigs in Bangor, Maine and Baltimore, Maryland.

News

Will CA be next to offer Ink of Hope for trafficking victims?

Image by romkaz.

If a bill by Assemblymember Diane Dixon becomes law, tattoo artists would join a long list of professionals required to be trained in spotting signs of human trafficking, including first responders, healthcare workers, educators, hospitality staff, transportation workers, social workers and more.

News

California’s higher education Master Plan in flux?

Image by ismagilov.

Faced with growing concerns that California’s higher education system is outdated and unresponsive to the needs of an increasingly diverse student population, lawmakers are considering more structural changes to the state Master Plan’s vision of university and college education.

News

CIRM gets first approval of a one-and-done gene therapy

The Langenhop family. Photo courtesy of the Langenhop family and the CIRM.

After 21 years of “prospecting,” the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM) has fetched up its first “nugget” – federal approval of a one-and-done gene therapy for a life-threatening disease.

Micheli Files

Reading on the Assembly floor

The California Assembly in session. Photo by AP

On occasion, if you listen to the proceedings on the Floor of the California State Assembly, you may hear either a legislator seeking “permission to read on the Floor,” or you might hear a legislator raise a point of order that a colleague is reading on the Floor. What is the basis for either of these two statements?

Podcast

California Labor: Lorena Gonzalez

CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: Membership in California labor unions grew by over 100,000 members between 2024 and 2025. Our guest today is one of the reasons for those gains. Former Assemblymember Lorena Gonzalez is the President of the California Federation of Labor Unions, AFL-CIO, which is made up of more than 1,300 unions, representing 2.3 million members. We spoke with Gonzalez about the status of the labor movement, the threat – and opportunities – of AI, and the impact of Cesar Chavez’ sudden downfall. 

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