Experts Expound: The Trump endorsement

Does Donald Trump’s endorsement of Steve Hilton ensure there won’t be an all-Republican gubernatorial runoff in November? 

“Yes. The Trump endorsement of Hilton means the scenario of having two Republicans in the run-off is unlikely to happen. This is a huge blunder by the White House.”

“Never say never. The fact there is still ANY chance demands that we undo the top two primary.”

“Yep. Game over.”

“Conventional wisdom has long suggested that a Democrat will secure one of the two spots in the general election. Donald Trump’s endorsement of Steve Hilton is unlikely, on its own, to fundamentally alter the dynamic of an all-Republican gubernatorial run-off.”

“Trump’s endorsement does not guarantee it, particularly in a volatile and crowded field. Democrats have eight candidates competing, and issues such as the allegations surrounding Eric Swalwell can quickly shift momentum and keep the field fragmented. As one candidate begins to break out, something tends to pull them back into the pack, leaving no clear frontrunner. The deciding factor on the Republican side is consolidation. If Bianco remains in the race and the infighting stops, the possibility of an all-Republican runoff in November remains on life support, at best.”

“Probably. But I didn’t think a hardline police candidate was going to make it either way.  Those politics have a narrow base in CA.”

“The short answer is yes. The dumb shit just eliminated the only chance the Republicans had in the last 20 years to elect a governor.”

“Anything that lets one of the two Republicans pull away from the other will help ensure a Democrat lands the second slot in June. The Trump endorsement does that, and saves Dems from having to spend money to boost one Republican, much as now-Senator Schiff did to pump up former Dodgers great Steve Garvey to finish ahead of Katie Porter. I love the Dodgers, but Garvey was a hapless candidate.”

“There are no absolutes in this race. Hilton’s getting a Trump endorsement right before the Rep Convention should give him an edge with the hard-core activists but not sure how it translates to voters. Does it tank Bianco? Who knows.”

“Trump’s endorsement may motivate some voters to turn out for the primary that otherwise may not – which helps Republicans. If you support the Sheriff, you will not likely be swayed by Trump’s endorsement and swing your vote to Hilton – your motivation to vote for Bianco was already there. I think Democrats are missing reading the endorsement as something that increases the spread between the two leading Republicans and have a Democrat finish second, but given the large field of Democrats this may not be enough to break through. The fact Trump endorsed in a primary may energize young voters and more far left support to cast a vote which may benefit lower polling Democrats.”

“Blue waves tend to start on California’s shores. Even if Republican voters are savvy enough to split their support between the two candidates, I don’t think it will be enough to withstand what’s coming.”

“A Republican lockout is unlikely not because of Trump’s endorsement (which does more damage to Hilton in the general than it helps him in the Primary) but because Californians are starting to pay attention to the race, which is still two months away. Bianco’s ballot-grab was a crass attempt to suck up to Trump voters but looks like it backfired. Mahan is running out of money, and Yee, Thurmond, Villaraigosa and Becerra are running out of excuses for why they are still in the single digits. Steyer’s advisors are going to keep soaking him for as long as they can, but in the end he’ll join Al Checchi, Meg Whitman and Rick Caruso in the Can’t-Buy-Charisma Club. Porter and Swalwell are in for the long haul and you can take it to Kalshi: one of them will make the Top Two.”

“We are so far through the looking glass at this point that it seems very much beside the point to analyze the marginal impact on a state gubernatorial race of a genocidal madman that is terrorizing his own country, destabilizing the world and, ironically, rapidly drawing to a close anything that could be characterized as a period of American Greatness. But the Dems would have worked this out on their own and seemed to be slowly coalescing around Swalwell. If the Republicans in the state had the sense that God gave a goose, they would align behind Matt Mahan, who in many ways stands for what the Grand Old Party supported before it traded reason for madness.”

“Donald Trump’s endorsement, if it sticks, should eliminate any fear from Democrats that two Republicans could make the runoff.  Instead of a worst-case scenario with Bianco/Hilton tying at 19% or something close to that (a fear reflected in the latest CDP polling that had both of them tied at 14%), we should see Hilton get to the mid-20s, which would push Bianco down under 10%.  That means that the top-polling Democrat could win with just 11-15%rather than having to cross the 20% threshold to be safely in the runoff.

Of course, while this assumes the Trump endorsement significantly consolidates the Republican voters behind Hilton, we would want this to see this in polling over the next couple weeks before being absolutely positive.  And it’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility for Trump to do a late dual endorsement if Dems are still mired in the 10-14% range, or for him to say a couple nice things about Bianco to at least force Democrats to spend some money to avoid the Top Two disaster.  There still could be some twists and turns here.”

Our panel of experts: Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Samantha Corbin, Jon Costantino, Richard Costigan, Gregg Fishman, Tim Foster, Rex Frazier, John Howard, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Steven Maviglio, Mike MeCey, Paul Mitchell, Jack Ohman, Kassy Perry, Matt Rexroad, Garry South, Paula Treat, Micah Weinberg, Bill Wong, Daniel Zingale