Experts Expound: The Mahan Question

Should he decide to run, what impact, if any, would San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan have on the 2026 gubernatorial election? 

“With all due respect Matt Mahan is a nobody statewide, a political force only in his own mind because he likes to publicly crap on Newsom. I doubt his statewide name ID would be more than 2 or 3 percent — and some of them probably would have him confused with Dot McMahan, the Olympic runner. Plus, despite being a lovely city and California’s third-largest San Jose is the political black hole of California and has never produced a governor or a U.S. senator. The furthest any previous mayors have gone is being elected to Congress (including Mahan’s immediate predecessor, Sam Liccardo, and Norm Mineta) — actually a downsizing after running a city of more than a million. San Jose has historically been completely overshadowed politically by L.A., San Francisco, and even San Diego, which produced a governor Pete Wilson and senator Pete Wilson.”

“He would immediately attract a great deal of interest especially from the business community, but having taken on some pretty powerful interests in Sacramento and being a politician who is only now getting his feet under him as a public communicator it is not clear that he would immediately separate himself from the field.”

“It would further put Dems in jeopardy of being locked out of the November runoff and handing the governor’s office to the Republican party.”

“Mahan’s brand of Harvard educated problem-solver seems naive to the polarized populism of the times. His response to the wealth gap is to punt to the feds, where nothing is likely to happen. His passing the buck ignores the fact California’s gap between high and low earners is wider than most other states. The vast majority of Californians want the state to do more to reduce the gap.”

“He would add a lot to the debate.”

“I don’t think he has a lot of name recognition outside of the Silicon Valley. He may get some tech money to help improve that situation, but it’s going to be an uphill battle against many of the rest of the Democratic field, especially Steyer, who is already spending a ton of money developing name recognition. Of course, the Democratic Dilemma as with so many in the race, is they could split the field so much they leave both ‘top two’ spots to the GOP. I think there will be a winnowing pretty soon, and some of the low-polling Dems who can’t raise any money will drop out…”

“You get yet another candidate who might get 5-10% of the vote in the first round. Yawn.”

“Another prominent Dem with a built-in constituency could have a profound impact because of the top-2 rule. It’s not inconceivable that this gaggle of Dems could so split the vote that the top 2 might both be Republicans.”

“He might be the sole voice of reason.”

“If Mayor Mahan were to enter the California gubernatorial race, his status as a known commodity in the San Francisco Bay Area media market could give him an early advantage with left-of-center voters familiar with his record on budgets, homelessness, and governance. Running against a candidate primarily defined by the Los Angeles media marketplace would frame the contest as a regional contrast, testing Bay Area policy credibility against Southern California name recognition and reach.”

“It’s hard to see his candidacy doing anything other than further diluting an already-oversaturated Dem field. Mahan’s brand – energetic moderate Democrat – would appeal to a lot of funders in the race, but Swalwell got to that lane first and has the bonus of better name ID due to the Trump impeachment hearings.”

“Since Mahan is not well known outside his home base of San Jose, he’ll need to raise his name id dramatically and quickly. That takes significant resources. So his more moderate reputation may be appealing but if no one knows about it, he’s just another guy in a very ho hum race.”

“Matt Mahan would be the Pete Buttigieg of the gubernatorial candidates – a young, handsome, articulate and highly-educated mayor of a major city. His business and tech background helps as well. If he can raise the cash, I wouldn’t count him out.”

“The moderate lane is wide open. And this might be the first time the Top Two primary gets what is designed for. Mahan, who will be bolstered by high tech money, can fend off the progressives split among multiple candidates and steal Villaraigosa’s thunder. The knives will be out, but voters are hungry for a candidate that speaks their language.”

“Matt Mahan’s candidacy would be based on a fallacy about this governor’s race – one that there is some middle-ground voter who is looking for someone who, above all else, will fix California’s biggest problems. A problem solver who will go beyond partisan talking points to get things done. Voters in general may want that, but what Democratic primary voters (who actually will show up in June) want more than anything is someone who will fight Trump. That’s the table stakes in this Governor’s race. If a candidate doesn’t convince voters of that they will be down with the handful of single-digit-warriors that have no chance. And Republicans who vote in primaries will vote for someone with an R next to their name, period. There is virtually no crossover voting in primaries. Some may think there is à lane for a moderate problem solver, but it’s more like a bike path. And it’s not going to get anyone elected governor.”

“The issue the Mayor has is “what lane does he run in?” — is he a moderate Democrat that leads one of the largest wealth producing areas in the world that will pit him against labor and side with billionaires; is he liberal big city mayor that will expand social programs and raise taxes; is he a “Bill Clinton” Democrat that will push for a balanced budget, cut social programs, take on labor; or is he a pragmatic politician who can bring all sides to the table to a achieve a better California for all. There are too many alternatives still running that overshadow him. He should wait, get more experience, become a leader within local government organization and use that as the platform to lay the foundation for a future run. IMHO he has no significant impact on the 2026 Governor’s race.”

Our panel of experts: Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Samantha Corbin, Jon Costantino, Richard Costigan,  Gregg Fishman, Tim Foster, Rex Frazier, John Howard, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Steven Maviglio, Mike MeCey, Paul Mitchell, Barbara O’Connor, Jack Ohman, Kassy Perry, Matt Rexroad, Garry South, Paula Treat, Micah Weinberg, Bill Wong, Daniel Zingale