Experts Expound: The Gaza effect

The ongoing conflict in Gaza has sparked intense debates and protests all over the country. With that in mind, we asked our panel of experts to weigh in on how this might impact the November elections.

The question: Will ongoing campus strife over the situation in Gaza negatively impact Dems at any level of government in November?

“This issue will likely not be top of mind for voters in November.  It just adds to the overall narrative that Biden is not in control.”

“If you’re referring to Dems in CA, the answer is no. Voters may have grievances against the Dems, who run CA, but Republicans are not considerable as a viable alternative — or as an improvement.”

“The campus strife will, thankfully, be long forgotten by November. It already is fizzling out. The November election will be all about Biden vs. Trump. It will turn on the economy and their personalities. That said, there are some Palestinian activists that believe that if Biden loses that will force the Democratic Party to be less supportive of Israel, and will blame Biden’s stance on Gaza for his defeat. That will be a stretch, even in competitive states like Michigan with a strong Arab-American community.”

“The strife is going to move to different venues now that campuses are closing for the summer. The Olympics? The Democratic Convention? Traditionally presidential elections in times of major international crisis still revert to bread-and-butter domestic issues, or become more about the domestic lens on the foreign policy…like how the Gaza conflict has both an international component (the actual war) and the domestic component (police breaking up protests). And in that the domestic policy component is more impactful on the votes for president, even though it is obviously not life-and-death like an actual military conflict. We don’t know where this conflict is going to go, but it will continue to be a challenge for domestic politics as long as it is at the forefront of our news and political activism. But once it moves to the back burner, because of fatigue or middle east solutions, the other domestic issues will become much more important. Inflation, immigration, abortion, democracy…”

“Anything that depresses the voter turnout of young voters who would otherwise vote for Democratic candidates, starting with President Biden, will impact the outcome in the battleground states. It might even influence outcomes in toss-up legislative districts in blue states like California (thinking of Dave Min in the Katie Porter congressional seat, or Adam Gray in the John Duarte district) where you have UC campuses.”

“It might.  In 1968, only 11% of young Americans identified with Republicans. But their anti-war activism on campuses, and at the Democratic convention, arguably helped Republican Richard Nixon win that year’s election. Ironically, Nixon spent the next several years escalating U.S. bombing and expanding the war into Laos and Cambodia.”

“The Democratic Convention is shaping up to be an absolute 1968-style disaster based on the way that things are going with this issue.  And this could be a major factor leading to the reelection of a president who moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and enthusiastically embraced Benjamin Netanyahu during his term.  Lots of factors will be at play in the election, of course, but the Gaza issue is all downside for the Democrats, the party that is dramatically more supportive of the Palestinian cause, albeit in relative terms.  This also reinforces the (unfair) perspective that the party is more concerned with issues of identity and simplistic narratives of oppressor and oppressed than promoting opportunity and prosperity for the middle class in the United States.”

“Campus strife, not so much, but the generational disconnect on the Palestinian cause between young people and Dem elders is gonna be felt at every level of government come November. Whether or not it costs Biden the White House is the question.”

Our panel of experts: Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Samantha Corbin, Jon Costantino, Richard Costigan, Tim Foster, Rex Frazier, John Howard, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Steven Maviglio, Mike MeCey, Paul Mitchell, Barbara O’Connor, Jack Ohman, Kassy Perry, Matt Rexroad, Garry South, Paula Treat, Micah Weinberg, Bill Wong, Daniel Zingale