Experts Expound

“Whitman and Brown are reaching out to Latinos, who traditionally do not vote in high proportions. Is this the year that Latinos flock to the polls and decide the election? Or does California continue its trajectory of aging and white voters?”

No, Latino voters won’t flock to the polls, but they will constitute between 14-18 percent of the votes cast, and Brown needs to get 70-to-75 percent of them, to make up for the fact he will lose the white vote.  At the rate he’s going with his nonexistent campaign in the face of Whitman’s extensive and expensive outreach to Latinos, he may not get there.

One word: Arizona. Will it still fire up young Latino voters by November? We’ll see.

This race is shaping up to be close enough that low-propensity Latino voters can make the difference.  Just ask “Landslide” Juan Vargas about their importance.

Nothing on this ballot is viscerally compelling enough to bring Latinos out en masse. That said, Latinos have been voting in incrementally greater numbers for years now, and they could sway results in a close election. That poses a greater challenge for Whitman because Democrats no doubt will point out the cynicism with which she now courts Latinos – after having run a tough-on-immigration primary.

First of all it is not true that Latinos don’t “traditionally vote in high proportions”  — and has not been true since at least 1998.  Very high Latino turnout in 2008.  2010 will see a higher turnout of both conservative whites and conservative Latinos.  It is also not true that California has a “trajectory of aging and white voters.”  Whites have steadily declined as  a portion of the electorate for at least the past 30 years. So your question cannot be answered because it is based on a false premise.

Latinos represent a third of the population and, just maybe, will represent about 15 percent of the vote. Unless the Latinos get fired up for Brown and come to the polls in larger numbers than they’ve shown before, Brown is going to have a very long election night.

Decline – to – states will be the decider, whether Latino, aging, or white.

California’s voting population will continue to look more like Betty White and Abe Vigoda than Eva Longoria and George Lopez.

The sleeping giant will maintain its slumber absent a still-absent compelling reason to turn out. The white old farts will turn out in larger numbers… and that just may help Jerry Brown more than some would think.

The Latino community will remember what Jerry Brown did for them when he signed the Agricultural Labor Relations Act in 1975…  

At the end of the day, the big story in the governor’s race is the fact that Whitman appears to be gaining ground in the Latino community. Who would have thunk it?

There will not be any especially large turnout for Latinos this year.

If Prop. 187 didn’t bring a deluge of Latinos to the polls, what will? Jerry Brown? Meg Whitman? Boxer? Fiorina?  Spare me. Only 8 percent of the vote came from Latinos in 1994, and better than one out of five supported 187.  It will take a political miracle to get enough Latino support to push Brown over the top.

Whitman has done and continues to do more to hurt the overall GOP relationship with Latino voters than practically anyone. It is a must voting year for the Latino community and if it comes through it will come through for Brown. Even likely republican voters have grown weary – and will grow more weary – of Whitman’s neverending assaults on the facts.
Some growth in Latino turnout, but nothing dramatic.

Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Mark Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, Morgan Crinklaw, J Dale Debber, Peter DeMarco, Mike Donovan, Jim Evans, Kathy Fairbanks, Jeff Fuller, Rex Frazier, Ken Gibson, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Sandy Harrison, Bob Hertzberg, Jason Kinney, Greg Lucas, Mike Madrid, Nicole Mahrt, Steve Maviglio,  Adam Mendelsohn, Barbara O’Connor, Bill Packer, Kassy Perry, Jack Pitney, Adam Probolsky, Tony Quinn, Matt Rexroad, Matt Ross, Roger Salazar, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Ralph Simoni, Sam Sorich, Ray Sotero, Garry South,