Experts Expound

“Yet another budget deadlock. How does this play into the race for governor? Which candidate is helped – or hurt – by the failures in the Capitol?”

Jerry Brown is the insider. He needs to own Sacramento if Whitman is to have a chance.

Nobody runs against the Establishment better than Jerry Brown. Mega Millions Meg loses on this one.

It hurts Brown. He is the quasi-incumbent. Note that in Michigan yesterday a businessman beat three pols for the gubernatorial nomination. Not a good year to be a quasi-incumbent.
Whitman will benefit as the “outsider” while Jerry Brown has been an “insider” part of this system for decades….

It has to hurt Brown, who is far more identified with Sacramento than Whitman, the billionaire outsider. Here’s where perception trumps reality. Whitman knows nothing about government, and Brown does, but voters are in throw-the-bums-out mood, and Brown is going to pay the price.

It helps neither. The continuing budget fiascos have not been tamed by a supposed kick-butt outsider, “run government like a business” governor, so that doesn’t help Whitman’s story line. On the other hand, Brown is the last governor to have a veto overridden – and by a Legislature that was overwhelmingly Democratic at that – so it’s hard to figure how Brown can make the case that he will have some special power to affect the behavior of the Legislature, either.

Californians have come to expect a dysfunctional budget process. Unless one of the candidates makes it an issue, it won’t be. On the other hand if eMeg, nutMeg, or whoever she is today, contributes some of her vast wealth – and gets her pals from Goldman to contribute some of theirs – to help balance the budget, that might be impressive….

It certainly doesn’t help the rich Republican candidate that the incumbent rich Republican governor continues to prove so ineffective. When the Reeps were trying to bring down Gray Davis, they strategically refused to vote for any budget he submitted in hopes that continuing gridlock would reflect most poorly on him and his party. They succeeded. It follows that this deadlock will reflect most poorly on the Republican governor, and most hurt the Republican candidate.

If voters conclude that heartless, knuckle-dragging social cons are holding up the budget, then it hurts Whitman and the GOP. Blame landing on labor bosses, trial lawyers and hippie retreads hurts Brown. Current trends point to voters complaining loudly about the former but voting against the latter. Slim advantage: Whitman.

Both will use it as an example of how the system is broken, followed by specious and vacuous claims that only their wondrous “leadership” will right our ship o’ state.

Another budget deadlock hurts everybody: From California’s quality of life and members of our dysfunctional Legislature to the poor and the voiceless to yes, even Nutmeg and Moonbeam.

Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Mark Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, Morgan Crinklaw, J Dale Debber, Peter DeMarco, Mike Donovan, Jim Evans, Kathy Fairbanks, Jeff Fuller, Rex Frazier, Ken Gibson, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Sandy Harrison, Bob Hertzberg, Jason Kinney, Greg Lucas, Mike Madrid, Nicole Mahrt, Steve Maviglio,  Adam Mendelsohn, Barbara O’Connor, Bill Packer, Kassy Perry, Jack Pitney, Adam Probolsky, Tony Quinn, Matt Rexroad, Matt Ross, Roger Salazar, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Ralph Simoni, Sam Sorich, Ray Sotero, Garry South,