Experts Expound

Antonio Villaraigosa for governor in 2014? What are his chances against Brown, not to mention the others who might be in the same primary – Newsom, Harris, Chiang, even Lockyer?

Brown wins. Next question.

If it’s time to contemplate 2014 let’s go long: Philandering politicians Villaraigosa and Newsom split the middle-age-males-in-crisis vote; turnout disappoints Brown and Lockyer because of absent-minded, absentee-ballot-casting seniors; and minorities can’t decide between Harris and Chiang. Seriously, Harris may be the longest of the long shots but is the most appealing, at least to odds makers.

Vigorish has no chance. Ask his families.

He actually has experience now in actually running an organization.  He would be a much better governor now than he would have been eight years ago.  

Two observations from his speech to Sac Press Club: 1) It’s telling that the mayor had to leave L.A. city limits to find a press corps still willing to take him seriously as a thought leader. 2) Since he decided it was his job to lecture the governor and the Legislature on all the things they’re doing wrong in Sacramento, I guess it’s also their fault that the mayor hasn’t been able to achieve even one of his big-idea promises in Los Angeles.  This was a little like the owner of the Dodgers giving a speech on how Major League Baseball could better manage its finances.

Both Antonio and Gavin have lots of personal baggage that voters will be reminded of.  Many perceive Lockyer as running for every office.  Lots see Harris as unseasoned for ‘14.  That leaves Chiang.  He is winning lots of points for his fiscal prowess and principles.  He is charisma challenged.  It depends on the mood of the voter but it will be all about jobs and the economy.  Chiang is great on those topics.

Talk about Clash of the Titans. The 2014 Democratic primary will be hot stuff, and a lot of bodies will be lying on the ground. Maybe all the fighting really will boost Republicans.
Against Brown–terrible, because I doubt he’d run. Against the others, pretty good. Newsom can’t play the philanderer card on him, Harris is way less seasoned, and he blows the other two out of the water. Hardly a lock, but strong.

Newsom vs. Villaraigosa.  That would be a fun fight.  The voters will choose L.A. over San Francisco.

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