Experts Expound

Experts Expound

California was solidly Obama country in 2008. What about next year, given the deep unemployment, the still-weakening economy, the voters’ unhappiness with government and disenchantment from the left with Obama?

All true, but way too soon to tell.  Libs have no place to go.  Depends on who the Republican nominee is and what the issues highlighted are.  Always good to remember the California registration is lopsided by a big number, to favor Democrats.  All constitutional officers are Democrats and the unions and proposition proponents are largely going to support Obama.  New districts will favor him as well.  

President Obama has plenty to keep him up at night, but not California in 2012.  The Republican primaries will do his job for him.

San Fran/LA is one of Obama’s biggest voter blocs, and he won’t lose the state. But he may lose re-election and Congress, leaving Democrats all powerful in Sacramento and all-but irrelevant in Washington.

He can’t lose unless Mitt Romney develops charisma, Rick Perry develops brains or Ronald Reagan rises from the dead. The chances of all three are about the same. In other words, he can’t lose.

Obama has big problems next year, but not in California. He won’t need to campaign here, and that’s not good. But barring a profound sea-change in the California electorate, Obama easily takes California and the rest of the West Coast.

Obama still takes California due to the state’s irrational and stoned population.

Depends on GOP nominee.  It would be a much closer race with Romney-Rubio.  They would get some Latino votes and could appeal to private sectors workers who are having a terrible time making ends meet.

California is still a blue state.  Obama gets all the electoral votes from the Golden State.

Remember, the alternative to Obama will be a Republican who doesn’t believe in evolution or climate change, whose top priorities are more wars, more executions, more tax cuts for billionaires, letting uninsured people die, and depriving gay people of basic human rights. California won’t choose that.

He’ll win here, but losing even a little margin could cost him in the national popular vote, which could effect his political capital if he’s narrowly reelected. The likes of Rick Perry and the rest won’t even force him to campaign here. Bring on the national popular vote!

Andrew Acosta, Elizabeth Ashford, A.G. Block, Mark Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, J Dale Debber, Peter DeMarco, Mike Donovan, Jim Evans, Kathy Fairbanks, Jeff Fuller, Rex Frazier, Ken Gibson, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Sandy Harrison, Bob Hertzberg, Jason Kinney, Greg Lucas, Mike Madrid, Nicole Mahrt, Steve Maviglio,  Adam Mendelsohn, Barbara O’Connor, Bill Packer, Kassy Perry, Jack Pitney, Adam Probolsky, Tony Quinn, Matt Rexroad, Matt Ross, Roger Salazar, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Ralph Simoni, Sam Sorich, Ray Sotero, Garry South, Kevin Spillane, Robin Swanson, Angie Wei, Rich Zeiger

Want to see more stories like this? Sign up for The Roundup, the free daily newsletter about California politics from the editors of Capitol Weekly. Stay up to date on the news you need to know.

Sign up below, then look for a confirmation email in your inbox.


Support for Capitol Weekly is Provided by: