Experts Expound

Experts Expound

Who wins the Democratic primary election for governor: Phil Angelides or
Steve Westly?



I had originally bet on Westly last year, because of Garry South’s skill,
Westly’s resources and fresh image, and Angelides’ heavy ethical baggage and
overly nasty style and surly image–but I guess I’m going to have to eat my
eBay stock on this one. Low-turnout primary, Phil’s endorsements and
Westly’s lack of a compelling message give Angelides the nod and Arnold
breathing room for November.

Who cares? Neither of them are getting elected in November.

Phil Angelides with 60 percent. Biggest mistake of the campaign: Steve
Westly’s campaign took their best asset–Steve Westly–off-camera and launched
negative ads instead.

It’s a dead heat. To resolve the dilemma, party bosses convene in a
smoke-filled room where, motivated by a “what the hell attitude,” they
nominate Arnold Schwarzenegger. Everybody feels good about it. Except, of
course, Steve Westly and Phil Angelides. Then again, given how those two
have conducted the campaign, nobody gives a twig whether they feel good or
not. Barring that scenario, Angelides probably pulls it out as the slightly
lesser of two evils.

It will be a tie and go into extra innings. Drag on through the summer and a
series of court battles.

The treasurer wins it, which is a good thing for those of us who couldn’t
bear the thought of seeing that orange bus all summer and fall long.

Angelides wins the nomination, thanks in part to low turnout, but goes on to
snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and loses the general election.

Who can tell amidst all of the noise? But you get bet this: If the turnout
is as low as is predicted, that’s a big boost for Angelides.
The ethnic one wins.

I assume Phil Angelides wins since nobody cares but the hard-core party

Phil, but just barely.

Phil by three points due to a better ground game. His folks will ensure that
his voters get to the polls.

The people from whom we sought opinions: Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Don
Wilcox, Jon Fleischman, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Dan Schnur, Jason
Kinney, Tom Kise, Karen Hanretty, Kevin Spillane, Michael Houston, Adam
Mendelsohn, Matt Ross, Sam Delson, Mike Madrid, Morgan Crinklaw, Dave
Lesher, Richard Zeiger, Ralph Simoni, Bob Hertzberg, Scott Baugh, Steve
Maviglio, Tony Quinn, Peter DeMarco, Adam Probolsky, Barbara O’Connor, Jack

Want to see more stories like this? Sign up for The Roundup, the free daily newsletter about California politics from the editors of Capitol Weekly. Stay up to date on the news you need to know.

Sign up below, then look for a confirmation email in your inbox.


Support for Capitol Weekly is Provided by: