Experts Expound

Experts Expound

Political reporting over the last two weeks suggests that the Angelides
campaign is in deep trouble, perhaps deeper than reflected by recent poll
numbers. Is this really true? If so, why?

Political reporting? They still do that in Sacramento?

Yes, it’s true. The only thing voters know about Angelides is that he wants
to raise taxes. Let’s see if they have the guts to stay with the Iraq
message for more than five or six days.

Momentum is everything. Angelides has none.

Of course he’s in deep trouble. He’s a crazy out-of-the-mainstream
ideological leftie–even by California standards. That’s why he’s in trouble.
He loses by double digits in November, which is something a California
Democrat has to try very hard to do.

Phil Angelides has been pronounced dead more times than Francisco Franco. As
Democrats return to the fold in the next few weeks, and Arnold can’t hide
behind Democratic bill signings, the race will tighten.

No focus, no money, no key message and now the campaign is running a
referendum against George Bush. The problem is that if that message sticks,
and that is a very big if, the campaign has not really offered an
alternative. All are bad signs for Angelides.

Phil took a lot of hits in the primary and has never really recovered.
Arnold painted him as a compulsive tax raiser before he was able to present
his positive qualities to the public. That said, Phil’s not dead yet. If he
can get his real message out in the final month, he can close the gap
significantly. Victory is a long shot, but not out of the question.

He’s in trouble because he can’t get any traction on his issues. Either the
things Angelides feels are the governor’s shortcomings aren’t firing people
up, there’s a problem with the messenger, or, more likely, the governor has
done such a great job of rehabilitating his imagine in the last 10 months
that no one sees a need to make a change.

The people from whom we sought opinions: Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Roy
Behr, Don Wilcox, Jon Fleischman, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Dan
Schnur, Jason Kinney, Tom Kise, Karen Hanretty, Kevin Spillane, Michael
Houston, Adam Mendelsohn, Matt Ross, Sam Delson, Mike Madrid, Morgan
Crinklaw, Dave Lesher, Richard Zeiger, Mike Madrid, Margita Thompson, Ralph
Simoni, Bob Hertzberg, Scott Baugh, Steve Maviglio, Tony Quinn, Peter
DeMarco, Adam Probolsky, Barbara O’Connor, Jack Pitney.

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