All four win by 20 points +. And TV stations around the state bag $40 million.
The referendums get defeated. There’s a backlash against the tribes growing, but there’s too much else going on for voters to focus. Confused and overwhelmed voters tend to vote no.
California needs all the money it can get. Jack Gribbon can’t outlive everyone. Look for these things to pass — while television stations and political consultants do very well.
The compacts are eminently beatable, based on polling data and given who they benefit—four of the richest, best-located, most obnoxious, biggest bully-boy tribes in California. The question is whether a decent budget can be raised to advocate on behalf of the referenda over against the $50-70 million Paul Mandabach is likely to squeeze out of the Big 4 tribes to “really beat” the referenda. This is Mandabach’s Prop. 103—his retirement fund.
Well referenda are screwy because if you want to change things, you vote no. If you want them to stay the same, you vote yes. Increasingly, people are fed up with this stuff and vote no on everything. So they’ll probably vote no, thinking they’re doing nothing, not realizing they’re changing the law and repealing the compacts.
The tribal compacts will remain in effect. So…answer is UP.
No predictions until I see the advertising and ad budgets. After all we aren’t talking about anything here that most people know or care about, so the election result will be about the impression created by the ad folks. Got Ads?
Tribes win. California wins.
The four tribes are all very popular in their Southern California communities. They will get to add more slots on their existing tribal lands. There are improved environmental standards. The state will gain hundreds of millions of dollars a year through 2030. The Governor, local police and fire officials, and Jack O’Connell will be pushing the Yes on 94-97 effort. The campaign for the Compacts will spend whatever it has to get the message to the voters. Of course it will pass.
Never bet against the tribes’ $$$.
The tribes have a bottomless bank account to slam this through. What will be interesting is how they frame it. Are they going back to the same old well—we poor poor tribes need this for self-sufficiency, boo hoo hoo? Or are they going to be more sophisticated and argue that gambling is good for California, provides jobs, blah blah blah?
The people from whom we sought opinions: Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Deborah Gonzalez, J Dale Debber,Don Wilcox, Dan Schnur, Sam Sorich, Jason Kinney, Matt Ross, Mike Madrid, Kevin Spillane, Morgan Crinklaw, Ralph Simoni, Garry South, Richard Zeiger, Adam Probolsky, Barbara O’Connor, Jim Evans,Rex Frazier, Jeff Fuller, Kassy Perry, Adam Mendelsohn, Ken Gibson, Bill Packer, Jack Pitney, Sandy Harrison, Steve Maviglio, Nicole Mahrt, Will Shuck, Bob Hertzberg, Evan Goldberg, Roger Salazar, Mark Bogetich, Matt Rexroad, Tony Quinn.