Experts Expound

Can the governor raise enough money to successfully push his $7 billion-a-year tax plan for the November 2012 ballot? Some tribes have put up $275,000. Who else will help finance this?

The governor can raise enough money to meet the campaign budget but the reality is that he is not going to be able to win by cutting through the clutter of the other messages from other campaigns.  Jerry seems to be a lot like Arny. See 2005.

Conventional wisdom dictates traditional funders such as CTA and SEIU will be spread too thin with Paycheck Deception and other high-urgency issues, but, to his credit, this governor has been able to keep a remarkable strange-bedfellows labor-business coalition together, buoyed by general public support, and should have plenty of pockets to pick.  The larger, million-dollar question is – who will be operationally in charge of the campaign – the governor’s team, who has never raised to or run a measure of this magnitude, but have the advantage of not being viewed as adversarial to business – or the professional, battle-tested, well-funded leadership of the Labor Coalition? Or will they run an independent effort?  

Follow the money. What favored consituencies are always on the receiving end of Democrat largesse regardless of cost or resulting damage to the state’s fiscal well-being? If you guessed Public Employee Unions, you win the Christmas Ham.

It depends on how many others pull off the ballot. He will raise enough money if the usual cast of characters aren’t split on five tax measures. His has the best chance of passage if big egos don’t prevail. Voters will be overwhelmed and money spent will be huge.

It’s hard to tell. He’s raised almost nothing over the past year, just a few tens of thousands of dollars. He raised less for his own race for governor in 2010 than Gray Davis did in 1998, half what Davis raised in ‘02, and less than Steve Westly spent in the 2006 primary. He was bailed out by, among other things, $30 million in labor IEs. That’s $30 million labor doesn’t have to spend on his ballot measure. Brown hasn’t done a ballot measure since ‘74. Does he really know much it costs to run one in the 21st century?

For the sake of the state, I hope not. He is balancing a rotten budget on the backs of small business. Instead real reform would be constructional changes revolving around mandatory spending.

The usual suspects. And business won’t oppose it, so that should help.

No.  Labor will be too distracted this year and no one thinks the governor is a long-termer.  His money will not materialize.

A wide variety of interests, including business interests, who want to see more budget stability in California. The lack of predictability and constant lurching makes planning for growth very difficult.

He can raise the money to place on the ballot with the help of public employee unions but the November ballot will be too crowded for the measure to pass.

 Andrew Acosta, Elizabeth Ashford, A.G. Block, Mark Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, J Dale Debber, Peter DeMarco, Mike Donovan, Jim Evans, Kathy Fairbanks, Jeff Fuller, Rex Frazier, Ken Gibson, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Sandy Harrison, Bob Hertzberg, Jason Kinney, Greg Lucas, Mike Madrid, Nicole Mahrt, Steve Maviglio,  Adam Mendelsohn, Barbara O’Connor, Bill Packer, Kassy Perry, Jack Pitney, Adam Probolsky, Tony Quinn, Matt Rexroad, Matt Ross, Roger Salazar, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Ralph Simoni, Sam Sorich, Ray Sotero, Garry South, Kevin Spillane, Robin Swanson, Angie Wei, Rich Zeiger