Experts Expound

Experts Expound

“What do you think will happen with Proposition 8, the gay-marriage ban? The poll numbers are conflicting, the spending heavy and some believe the outcome may be affected by the presidential election turnout.”

 Late money and large turnout lead to Prop 8’s demise.

An Obama landslide combined with the tendency to vote “no” on everything, probably means that Prop 8 will be defeated.

It probably passes, because the proponents have run a deceitful scare campaign on its behalf. But the No-on-8 campaign has been shockingly inept and off-message from the very beginning, so the opponents will bear as much responsibility for its passage as its supporters.

It’s going to be really close. The presidential vote will have an impact. Hopefully all those Obama voters actually go to the polls on election day.

Polls aren’t really conflicting – race is close and they seem to be behaving like they are behind – extreme ad content and also Frank trashing the field poll. That’s not what he would be doing if his polls said he was way ahead.

There should be an Obama surge which is more about young people than about blacks, which is bad for Prop 8. Also, the Yes on 8 campaign claims about African Americans surging against 8 is probably a bust – at the black church event yesterday, most of the people there were white Mormons.

I think, sadly, that it will go down. The “teaching gay marriage in the schools” disinfomercial appears to be resonating, and the Gavin “hubris” spot isn’t helpful, either. A high voter turnout from young Democrats might offer a glimmer of hope, but church-going blacks and latinos are not core supporters of gay rights. Throw in the cultural homophobes, and I think Prop 8 narrowly passes. Sure hope I am wrong on this one.

Looks like it might pass if the black and Latino turnout is really high. Gay marriage is a white thing, minorities don’t like it.

I doubt there will be a Bradley effect working against Obama, but there might be one here. So Prop. 8 might pass. Either way, I doubt we’ve seen the end of this issue.

The measure will fail at the polls, but succeed at banning Gavin Newsom from the governor’s office.

Despite the probability that Republican voters may stay home in record numbers, this prop is likely to pass. I think pushing this idea onto the religous was a step too far and had the gay community gone down the path of civil unions not that many people would lose sleep.

It’s a coin flip. But it is clear that even if Proposition 8 passes, gay marriage will ultimately be approved one day in California. On the other hand, if Prop. 8 wins, Gavin Newsom and Jerry Brown will have some serious egg on their faces in the short term.

Proposition 8 will pass due to two factors: its the only issue I’ve seen where poll respondents aren’t honest to a simple question by a wide margin.

Ironically, higher turnout will help prop 8 and 4. Latinos and African Americans will put the measure over the top. Need evidence? Visit a minority neighborhood and see how many “Obama” yard signs are posted next to “Yes on 8” and “Yes on 4” signs.

A large portion of democratic voters this election are social conservative African Americans and Latinos. While these voters are likely to support Democratic candidates, a large Dem increase could actually boost Prop 8’s chances. It remains to be seen whether this vote will be neutralized by an increase in the youth vote and by votes from centrist coastal Republicans.

The people from whom we sought opinions: Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Elizabeth Ashford, Mark Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, Morgan Crinklaw, J. Dale Debber, Peter DeMarco, Jim Evans, Kathy Fairbanks, Jeff Fuller, Rex Frazier, Ken Gibson, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Sandy Harrison, Bob Hertzberg, Jason Kinney, Mike Madrid, Nicole Mahrt, Steve Maviglio, Adam Mendelsohn, Barbara O’Connor, Bill Packer, Kassy Perry, Jack Pitney, Adam Probolsky, Tony Quinn, Matt Rexroad, Matt Ross, Roger Salazar, Gabriel Sanchez, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Ralph Simoni, Sam Sorich, Ray Sotero, Garry South, Kevin Spillane, Rich Zeiger.

Want to see more stories like this? Sign up for The Roundup, the free daily newsletter about California politics from the editors of Capitol Weekly. Stay up to date on the news you need to know.

Sign up below, then look for a confirmation email in your inbox.


Support for Capitol Weekly is Provided by: