Experts Expound

Experts Expound

“How would you assess Antonio Villaraigosa’s chances of being elected governor in 2010? Why?”

Zero. Jerry Brown.

Zero.  His base is the Latino community and they don’t appreciate his philandering.

Good, if he can keep his pants zipped. The more important question is whether the Legislature can work with him, given his mixed record as Assembly Speaker.

Maybe.  This could end up like Willie Brown leaving Sacramento and going home to beat Frank Jordan in 95.  The major difference of course is that this would be a white guy trying to beat a black mayor.  No one knows how the racial aspect will play.

I did ask the Magic 8 ball and the answer was – better not tell you now.  Can you ask this again in six months once the musical chairs stop?

The larger the field the better chance he has of being governor.  He has a base of support that he won’t lose.  He also has a group of people he will never get.  Those two combined are a big chunk of California.

Are we assuming Jerry Brown will be dead? Or that Los Angeles city government will be running like a well-oiled machine? Or that there won’t be creepy stories about his personal life? Seriously, though, he has just as good a chance as anybody else who isn’t Jerry Brown or a billionaire.

He has strong name ID in the south state, and bad breath is better than no breath at all (right Jack O’Connell?). But first he has to get by Gavin and Jerry, and I don’t think he can get by Jerry, who may be 71, but has the mind and energy of a 30 year old…and much better name ID statewide. I do think Antonio or Jerry or Jack could win in November, but Gavin would have more of a challenge.

Not very good. We have the forgiveness factor for infidelity and LA’s economy is not likely to get better by the end of the year when he needs to get serious about running. Big field of candidates and a full time job in LA make it tough.

Assuming he draws the vast majority of Latino statewide voters, he starts with a strong base, but where does he go from there?  His relatively feeble record as Mayor (he has yet to achieve any of his major reform initiatives) and his tepid support at home (as evidenced by his 55-percent re-elect number against token opposition) will haunt him in a three-way shoot-out.

Given his week performance in his mayoral contest, it’s clear he has no base. He’s at war with unions over budget issues, which undermines him even further. And he’s no match with either Gavin Newsom or Jerry Brown in the charisma department.

If he can win big in LA, overcome the lack of passion for his candidacy, he’s got a real shot.  But he’s got to go back and rebuild some of his base.

Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Mark Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, Morgan Crinklaw, J Dale Debber, Peter DeMarco, Jim Evans, Kathy Fairbanks, Jeff Fuller, Rex Frazier, Ken Gibson, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Sandy Harrison, Bob Hertzberg, Jason Kinney, Greg Lucas, Mike Madrid, Nicole Mahrt, Steve Maviglio,  Adam Mendelsohn, Barbara O’Connor, Bill Packer, Kassy Perry, Jack Pitney, Adam Probolsky, Tony Quinn, Matt Rexroad, Matt Ross, Roger Salazar, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Ralph Simoni, Sam Sorich, Ray Sotero, Garry South, Kevin Spillane, Angie Wei, Rich Zeiger.

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