Experts Expound

 “The state Supreme Court has upheld Proposition 8. What’s the next step? Another campaign on the 2010 ballot, a gubernatorial election year?”

California stays straight until kids in elementary school today grow up less homophobic than previous generations and register to vote.
A World War III of politics, both in the gov’s race and with another initiative.

Tough call. Waiting until 2012 might let the momentum build in other states, which could be helpful. On the other hand, it’s also a presidential re-election year and a year when 100 members of the Legislature will be running in newly re-districted seats. Gotta think the gay marriage forces will make their run in 2010.

The fact that the groups are emailing their lists asking which year they would prefer, 2010 or 2012, does not bode well for the follow-up effort. Instead of using hard data (polling, focus groups) to guide them, they are seeking guidance from random people on their email lists??? I support same sex marriage, but they better get their act together or they’ll lose all over again.

June, 2010. The gay community is in a hurry, but if they wait until the General Election in November they’ll hurt the Democratic candidate for governor. It could turn the gubernatorial campaign into a one-issue event….

Yes, I believe there will be another ballot measure in 2010 to overturn Prop. 8. The proponents of same-sex marriage will reason that it will be better to go to the ballot in a gubernatorial year when all the major Democratic candidates enthusiastically support gay marriage than in 2012 when an incumbent Democratic president will likely again oppose gay marriage.

First the gay movement must remove the real prime objection, and make clear in the next prop that churches do not have to marry gays. At that point, many of those who voted in support of the ban will evaporate.

Yes, but they’d be smart to wait until 2012 when Obama’s up for re-election and the electorate will skew their way more than next year.
The issue will not go away. It will continue to linger as a hot button issue with 5 percent of the population on each side.

The next step is US District Court, to be filed by two very heavy-hitting attorneys — this may end up in Justice Kennedy’s lap as the swing vote.

I would wait until 2012, the presidential ballot year. The economy will be on the upswing, there will be more persuadable voters, and there might even be a glow in the air. 2010 will suck all around for CA.

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