If you’re one of the hundreds of candidates for the Legislature, Congress, or even the pending US Senate race, one data question is hovering over everything you’re planning for the 2024 primary election: what will turnout look like?
Photo by Ray Buse via ShutterstockIn counties like Los Angeles, we see almost no increase in Latino share of votes cast from 2014-2022, and even drops in electoral impact of older Latinos.
Via ShutterstockI was recently reminded by a legal colleague about a state appellate court decision a few years ago and the limits on the Legislature’s power to amend a voter initiative. I think the court’s decision is important guidance to keep in mind as the 2023 Legislative Session gets underway.
One method to help ascertain the legislative intent behind a specified measure is a letter that is published in the Assembly Daily Journal or the Senate Daily Journal by the bill’s author. These letters, for which there are many each year, may be used by the bill’s author to explain an ambiguity in the bill or explain the purpose of particular changes in the law as done by the bill.
The California state Capitol in Sacramento. (Photo: Karin Hildebrand Lau, via Shutterstock)ANALYSIS: Are there ways to improve the lawmaking process in the California Legislature? I believe there are. I believe the fundamental problem is that there are too many bills each year. There just is not enough bandwidth for all persons involved in the legislative process to sufficiently review and analyze the volume of bills.
Gov. Gavin Newsom during a visit last fall to San Francisco. (Photo: Jana Asenbrennerova, via Shutterstock)Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared flatly that he is not interested in running for president. “I have sub-zero interest,” he told the San Francisco Chronicle’s editorial board recently. “It’s not even on my radar.” Right.
Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon. (Photo: Rendon's Twitter feed.)Timing is crucial in politics, and the battle over the Assembly speakership is no exception. The clock is ticking. If Rendon continues through the end of the current two-year session, then any change in the speakership will be decided in the next session, following the November elections, when all 80 Assembly seats are up for election.
A voter casts his ballot in the vote center at the Pantages Theatre in Los Angeles. (Photo: Ringo Chiu, Shutterstock)ANALYSIS: Ballots have been mailed to all 22 million California voters and many have already been returned. As has been the pattern for the last several election cycles, this begins a month-long stretch where most voters will cast their ballots by mail or at in-person voting centers. Some will wait until Election Day and vote at the polls, but that is a declining portion of the electorate.
Image of the California state flag, showing the cracks and fissures representing political differences. (Illustration: helloRuby, via Shutterstock)ANALYSIS: For the past two years, redistricting experts and politicos, myself included, have been building toward the 2022 election cycle. A big part of this included building tools for analyzing potential new districts for their partisan breakdown and likely voting behavior. Getting these kinds of metrics was critical to the drawing of lines by legislatures that still have the control, and performing advocacy before commissions in states, like California, that have transitioned to a public and open redistricting process.
The California state Capitol at dusk. (Photo: Karin Hildebrand Lau, via Shutterstock)You are an incumbent officeholder. You’d like to keep on being an incumbent officeholder. That means a re-election campaign – you know, where you kowtow to special interests, rail against fraud and waste and, above all, avoid being called “one of those Sacramento politicians” — even if you are one of those Sacramento politicians.