CA120: Confusion lurks in the California primary

In recent years, California has seen two major shifts in its voter file.

The largest has been the rise in the number of Permanent Absentee Voters, or PAVs.  Once limited to the older and more conservative portion of the electorate, absentee voting is quickly becoming the preferred voting method of voters from all demographics. A massive two-thirds of the most recent voter surge signed up to get their ballots in the mail.

The challenge for many voters, perhaps tens of thousands of them, will come when they open their absentee ballot the weekend before the election, excited about voting, and only then realize that they have the wrong ballot.

The second major shift is the increase in “No Party Preference,” or NPP voters, who are primarily young and Latino voters who would traditionally be a part of the Democratic coalition.  In California, these voters can register free of partisan labels, yet still vote for all the same Democratic and Republican candidates as everyone else.

Until now.

As we enter the June primary, we have an electorate that has been seen in polling to be more energized and with a desire to vote more commonly in general elections.  The last time we had anything close to this kind of engagement was during the 2008 presidential primary.

During the intervening eight years since that primary contest, we have seen a 35% growth in NPP registrations and an 88% spike in the number of PAVs.  In total, the population of non-partisan voters who get their ballots by mail has nearly tripled.

A recent CA120 survey of these NPP and PAV voters reported findings that should create great concerns for election administrators and political campaigns.

The study found that 88% of these voters are interested in voting in the upcoming election. Of those voters, two-thirds are interested in voting in the Democratic primary, while more than 17% are planning on re-registering to vote Republican.

One challenge heading into June is that these voters have grown accustomed to seeing all candidates on their ballot with the new open primary. While insiders might understand the subtleties of the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries, our past experience shows that the average voter has not done well adapting to seemingly simple changes in election procedures.

Republican presidential campaigns are already working aggressively to target these voters for re-registration so they can vote in their primary.  The CA120 survey suggests that as many as 725,000 voters might be interested in making that switch. But since Jan. 1, only 34,000 have done so. These voters have until May 23 to change their registration and get a Republican ballot.

On the Democratic side, things are seemingly easier, but that might not mean that things will go smoothly.

Over four million postcards like this one were sent by county registrars to NPP and PAV voters giving them an option to request what officials call a “crossover” ballot, and these must be done by written form. (Some counties appear to be allowing email applications, however the secretary of state’s office says these are disallowed).

Yet, according to the survey, it appears the vast majority of these voters who intend to vote in the Democratic primary are still not clued in to how the process works.

And this need to request the Democratic ballot is not just a fact missed by low-information voters.  We broke out voters who were in the highest turnout bracket, and had voted in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential primaries, and even among those, only 40% could correctly identify the process for getting a partisan crossover ballot.

Without requesting a Democratic ballot in time, these voters are going to be mailed a non-partisan ballot with no presidential section at all.  This could be a recipe for chaos as NPP voters, eligible and interested in voting in the primary, start looking through their ballots and find no Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton.

How big of a problem could this be?

If this election was more like 2008 or 2012, with mediocre interest among most independent voters, the number of absentees needing a partisan ballot would be relatively low.  During those election cycles, 40% of NPP voters who turned out had crossed over to participate in the partisan primary.  Without any higher participation this year, that would be at least 400,000 voters statewide needing to get a partisan ballot.  If turnout is significantly higher, as many are expecting, this number could skyrocket to a million or more.

A voter who wants to stay NPP and vote in the Democratic Primary would have to print out and mail in a request for a partisan ballot by May 31.

For voters who intend to participate in the Democratic or Republican presidential primaries — and who get a June ballot without the presidential candidates on them — there are remedies.

Voters who are interested in voting Republican and are willing to declare a party affiliation to do so, can change party registration up until May 23.  If they establish that they are PAV, they would get a new replacement ballot in the mail automatically.

An NPP could also re-register Democratic by that time and would also automatically receive a ballot with the presidential candidates on it.

A voter who wants to stay NPP and vote in the Democratic Primary would have to print out and mail in a request for a partisan ballot by May 31.  This request would invalidate the ballot they currently have, put them in a waiting game to get their replacement, and then have a rush to mail it back postmarked by Election Day.

Even state lawmakers should expect the conspiracy theorists to start flinging accusations at them for the confusion.

The other option is for the voter to go to the polls and vote a provisional Democratic ballot.  The provisional ballot would count, provided that the voter has not already completed and mailed in their non-partisan ballot.

County registrars, already slammed with the June Primary, an expected surge in turnout and even signature verification for the November ballot measures, could find themselves inundated with angry and confused voters asking where their presidential candidates are.

Even state lawmakers should expect the conspiracy theorists to start flinging accusations at them for the confusion.

And the challenge for many voters, perhaps tens of thousands of them, will come when they open their absentee ballot the weekend before the election, excited about voting, and only then realize that they have the wrong ballot.  And for many of them, a trip to the polling location on election day won’t be an easy option.

In the coming days we will begin tracking how many crossover applications and re-registrations to the Republican Party have been received in advance of the primary.

One preliminary count from 10 days ago showed that out of nearly 400,000 voters in LA County, 3,300 had registered Republican and 25,000 had requested crossover Democratic ballots.  Yet, our survey suggests that 55,000 of these voters would be interested in re-registering Republican and another 200,000 are interested in voting in the Democratic contest.

But with the most of the mail-in ballots being prepared by counties last weekend, and deadlines for re-registration and crossover application looming, we have to wonder how many will fail to realize it in time.
—
Ed’s Note: Paul Mitchell, a regular contributor to Capitol Weekly, is the creator of the CA120 column, which explores 2016 election issues in California. He is vice president of Political Data Inc., and owner of Redistricting Partners, a bipartisan political strategy and research company.