CA 120: Dems in a funk, but Harris and Newsom could still shine

Democrats are in a funk, but Harris and Newsom could still shine.

In the latest Capitol Weekly poll we wanted to get a sense from voters about how they are responding to the outcome of the presidential election. We surveyed nearly 1,200 California voters and found an electorate that is just as divided as ever and Democrats, in particular, in a funk.

To begin, the simple question of if voters were surprised by the Trump victory, 49% of voters said they were surprised President Trump won re-election, while 51% said it was what they expected. This mirrors the polling going into Election Day, when polls and modeling had the outcome firmly within the “toss up” range.

But the partisan divide can be seen in these answers, as 77% of Vice President Harris’ supporters expected her to win, while among 91% of Trump supporters said they expected him to be re-elected.

White voters, men and seniors were most surprised with the Trump victory, while minority voters, women and young people were the most likely to say that they expected Trump to win.  The largest gap in the presidential vote and expectation for a Trump victory came from young voters, with 2/3rds saying they thought he would win – even though they voted for Harris by a 3:1 ratio.

Who do voters who supported Kamala Harris blame for the loss? Among the 600 Harris supporters in the survey, every subgroup, including gender, ethnicity, age and geographic region, blames Biden and his team for Democrat’s loss in 2024. Overall, only 34% of Harris supporters blame her, with the remaining 66% pinning the blame on Biden and his team. This is even more dramatic among women, among whom 72% blame Biden.

Coming out of the 2024 election cycle, 58% view Biden unfavorably, with 42% favorable, for a -16 net favorability. Harris’s net favorability dropped from the last 2024 poll, but she still has a net positive rating of +4 (52% positive, 48% negative). Among Democrats, Biden’s net favorable is +37, down from a +61 prior to the November election, while Harris still has a +65% favorable, albeit down quite a bit from +82 in the September 2024 polling.

While favorability for Harris and Biden have dropped since the election, the views of the Democratic Party seem to have dropped even more. When asked “Do you think the Democratic Party has shown an ability to present an effective case against the Trump administration?” only 11% said yes, with 79% of voters saying that the Democratic Party has not shown this ability.  Among Democrats the numbers didn’t improve much – with 19% expressing confidence in their party, and 68% not.

When asked to give one word to describe the Democratic Party, the responses were bleak.

What is one word you would use to describe the Democratic Party in 2025? (Asked among Democrats)

Asked if Democrats are prepared to serve as an effective counterweight to the Trump administration, voters are not seeing it.

Only 11% of voters have confidence in the Democratic Party. It makes sense that this number is just 1% among Republicans, but at just 19% for Democrats and 5% among independents, the base of the Democratic Party appears to be in a deep hole.

And getting out of this hole for Democrats may be months or years away. Unlike in 2017 when Democrats were shocked by the Trump election, this re-election has hit much harder, and caused less protest, more resignation. Among Harris voters, 51% stated that they were more resigned/depressed and trying to avoid the Trump administration and national politics.

After the election, Vice President Harris had seemed to be avoiding the spotlight, but we have seen Gov. Gavin Newsom trying to serve as a counter-force to Trump with the state’s special legislative session and at the same time trying to work with the Trump administration on issues like the Southern California wildfires.

When asked an open-ended question as to which leader Democrats are most looking to right now, the clear answer was Governor Newsom. The following is a word-cloud of these open-ended responses.

During the next two years who do you consider to be the best leader of the Democratic Party to push back on actions of the Trump administration? (Asked of Kamala Harris supporters)

Newsom enjoys a strong favorable rating of 81% among Democrats, with 18% unfavorable, for a net 63% favorable – comparable to Harris and well ahead of Biden. He also tops the field for 2028 among Democratic voters. Asked among voters who supported Harris in 2024, 27% say they would support Newsom for the presidential nomination in 2028, with 15% saying Harris, 15% for Buttigieg, and 18% for other names, with Alexandria Ocasio Cortez among the names most commonly included in an open-ended “other” category.

While the 2028 nomination is far away, the 2026 Gubernatorial election is right around the corner, and the big question is if Kamala Harris will run. In this very early polling, we find a dramatic distinction in results depending on if you include Harris in the poll or not.

Capitol Weekly polling going back through 2024 has consistently shown Katie Porter with a rather commanding lead, although much of this could be recency bias since her high-profile 2024 primary significantly lifted her name recognition above even statewide officeholders who were on the ballot in 2022. Without her in the race, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis was leading the field.

Polling this far out is not very predictive of what would happen after the next 16 months before the June primary. Candidates who are not in the top five places in our polling, including Lt. Gov Kounalakis, former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former Senate Pro Tem Toni Atkins and former Controller Betty Yee, could build name recognition and develop into leading challengers in the coming months. However, if Harris were to get into the race she would not only lead the field, but she would also likely send other declared gubernatorial candidates scrambling.

On the Republican side, these candidates are just put in as placeholders for any eventual Republican candidates. Currently, some of the Sacramento insiders are tracking Steve Hilton from Fox News and the Riverside sheriff Chad Bianco, and another poll that has circulated included Eric Early. But, no matter who it is, the current polling suggests that a Republican would be likely to make it into the runoff, even with a heavily Democratic primary electorate in 2026.

The full poll, with many more questions and crosstabs for party, age, gender and region, can be found here.