CA120: Lawmakers skeptical, but voters support Newsom’s aggressive action on homelessness

During our recent polling on the presidential contest we also included some questions regarding the state’s homelessness crisis, who voters blame for where we are, what policy approaches they support, and how they gauge the recent more aggressive actions by the U.S. Supreme Court and Governor Gavin Newsom.

While state lawmakers and local government electeds have been complaining about the Governor’s more aggressive actions, the fact is that he has the voters on his side. In this polling we found voters are favoring action over inaction, less concerned with long term solutions, more focused on immediate progress, and Democrats, in particular, are willing to buck their own party to seek changes.

To set the stage, California is home to approximately 30% of the nation’s homeless, despite being only 12% of the nation’s population. Throughout the state we have seen increases in homelessness in the past several years, and this is reflected in voter perceptions.

Nearly 60% of voters say that homelessness in their area is getting worse.  This number increases to 65% for voters who self-identify as living in an urban community.

What is striking is how partisan a simple question like this becomes with 71% of Republicans stating that homelessness in their communities has gotten worse, compared to just 48% for Democrats – despite the fact that Democrats are more prevalent in urban areas with the most homelessness, and Republicans are more prevalent in suburban and rural areas with the least.

On questions of who is to blame, we see voters placing the blame for the state’s homelessness crisis on Governor Newsom and lawmakers, with 55% collectively resting responsibility at the state level.  Interestingly the two local agencies – city councils and supervisors – come in second at 31% collectively, with few voters, just 14%, placing responsibility with federal lawmakers.

Q: In your opinion, where does the governmental responsibility for homelessness most lie?

Governor Gavin Newsom           33%

State Legislature                            22%

City Council Members                 18%

County Supervisors                      13%

Congress                                            11%

President Joe Biden                       3%

Again, there is a strong partisan break, with 56% of Republicans placing the blame on Governor Newsom, compared to just 19% of Democrats.

When asked which party has the best solutions, 23% said the Republican Party, 30% said the Democratic Party and 48% said neither party.  Interestingly, 60% of Independents, 46% of Democrats and 41% of Republicans all agree that “neither party” has the best solutions – meaning a relatively large set of partisans are unhappy with their own leadership.

The range of potential solutions has widened since the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision in City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson which gave state and local governments more power to arrest, cite and find individuals who sleep outside in public places.

In our polling there was a significant partisan split on this court decision with Republicans favoring it by 65-points (76-11), Independents favoring it by 27-points (56-29) while Democrats narrowly opposed it by 9-points (34-43).

While men supported the ruling by a 35-point margin (60-25), women supported by a lower 7-point margin (43-36) and Democratic women were opposed to it by a 21-point margin (27-48).

In the weeks since the Grants Pass decision, California Governor Gavin Newsom has appeared to go on the offensive regarding the homelessness crisis.  There have been two main vectors: (1) Encampment cleanup and (2) Threatening funding for local governments who are not making sufficient progress.

These actions have been criticized by homeless advocacy groups and some in his own party, including Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass who called the action “unfortunate” and claimed it would “usher in a new wave of criminalization.”

Voters, however, are strongly in support of the Governor joining crews in cleaning encampments, with 57% supporting it and just 24% opposed, a wide 33-point margin. With an electorate as polarized as it is, one should be surprised to see 64% of Republicans supporting anything the Governor does.

Voters are less strongly supportive of the redirection of money to cities that are not progressing on homelessness with 45%, less than a majority, supporting this action and 30% opposed, a 15-point margin of support.  This support for redirection does not appear to have a strong partisan bias, with Republicans at 46% while Democrats and Independents are at 44%

Where this action really hits a chord is among men, with support from 53% and Urban men in particular, at 58% support, 26% oppose.  The move also has majority support from Latinos and Asians.

The policy differences in approaches to homelessness sometimes appear to be whether actions like moving homelessness encampments should be aggressively pursued, or if those policies end up doing more harm than good, given lack of housing, mental health care, addiction recovery and other long-term solutions.

To dive into this question we asked voters which of the following statements they most agree with:

• Moving homeless encampments is necessary to protect public safety and push the homeless to long term solutions
• Closing public encampments does more harm to the homeless and should not be done until other solutions are available.

Fully 70% of voters agreed with the first statement, pushing the homelessness cleanup as a first priority, while only 30% supported the latter. Again, Latinos and Asians were more aligned with conservative voters in their support of the “necessary for public safety” statement at 72% and 76% respectively.  This first option was supported more by men at 77% than women at 63%.  Among Republican Men the statement was supported by 91%.

What does this all mean?

To think of this policy area going forward, the most important numbers are the 46% of Democrats and 60% of Independents who think neither party has the right solutions.  These groups are strongly in favor of the recent actions by the courts, and Governor Newsom.

This policy area is one in which voters are asking for a different path from the Governor and other Democratic lawmakers.  It is a growth opportunity where reframing the debate, and positioning, can have a major impact on his favorables and voter perceptions of his party.

Extensive crosstabs for the homelessness polling, with additional questions not summarized here, can be found here.