Experts Expound: Ballot measures

There are 10 ballot measures set to go before voters in November. Which of them, if passed, will have the most long-term impact on Californians? 

“The billions in the Christmas Tree-loaded Climate Bond (Prop 4) are touted as being necessary to save the planet, which obviously has the most significant long-term impact. But rent control (Prop 33) might be the most devastating in both the short- and long-haul, as it will drive up the cost of housing, chill new housing construction and be a disincentive for long-term for the availability of housing we’ll need as our state continues to grow.”

“Proposition 36 would take California back to our worst days of expensive and ineffective mass incarceration. The massive cost of returning to over-crowded prisons won’t reduce crime, but will take away from resources that reduce recidivism, addiction and homelessness.”

“It has to be Prop 36.  This measure is in the heads of most voters who think crime is more rampant than it actually is.”

“Prop 34 will protect a critical federal health care program with the added benefit that voters can finally tell AHF and Michael Weinstein that we’re tired of his slums and exploitation. Californians deserve better than a mobster masquerading as a martyr. Prop 36 already seems to have had a lasting impact on California’s legislature, separating a new class of the forgotten “mod Dems” from those blindly following Governor Newsom’s ideological path in his hunt for the Oval Office.”

“I could make an argument, no surprise, that most if not all will have long-term impact if passed – but for different reasons.  Prop 2and Prop 4 could prove important because the last school bond failed and we still have no real explanation for why.  Voters used to make a distinction between bonds and other funding mechanisms.  So, if bonds lose again we may be seeing a much more complicated process in the future to figure out the use bonds for infrastructure needs.  (Sure wish there had been research done to figure out why the last Ed Bond failed but I digress.).

As to the others, while not much has been written about Prop 3, the right to marry remains a very important issue so ensuring its success and not just assuming you know how it will work out is important.

Finally, of the higher Propositions, put on with signatures… that Prop 36 will have impact.  How much, I’m not sure but if it passes, and retail theft does not improve … hmmmm.”

“Hard to tell. Remains to be seen. Most ballot measures are overhyped in both directions — exaggerated possible positive impacts by the proponents, exaggerated potential disastrous effects by the opponents. Having managed several statewide ballot-measure campaigns, both for and against, I’m guilty of both. Many initiatives, when passed, either don’t produce the benefits that were advertised — or in some cases are examples of the law of unintended consequences, causing unforeseen problems or are actually counterproductive. This current crop will likely be no different.”

“Proposition 36 taps into a fundamental concern: the safety and security of our families. Whether or not it achieves its goals in practice, the belief that Proposition 36 will keep criminals behind bars and empower law enforcement to take decisive action against those who threaten our homes and businesses is compelling to Californians. This measure also reintroduces a “carrot and stick” approach by giving offenders a choice between getting sober or facing jail time. While not everyone will successfully complete drug treatment, even a small reduction in the number of people struggling with addiction on our streets could have a significant positive impact on our communities.”

“In full disclosure, I’m working on Prop 4/Climate Bond. I have a slightly different perspective on the natural resource bonds that I’ve worked on for the past two decades. As a current parks commissioner, I’m seeing funds from prior bonds (84, 68, etc) getting spend on some incredibly meaningful projects in LA (my commission appointment). It’s a full circle moment to have worked on the campaigns and then be able to, many years later, help distribute the funding out to projects that are creating green space in inner cities, improving park safety, designing multi-benefit facilities (stormwater capture and basketball court above), etc.

Government agencies historically not featured these investments to the fullest extent so people are more aware of the benefits. We have made some important investments at the local and regional level that are making meaningful, incremental improvements for people’s lives. Sometimes the smaller, incremental changes at the foundational level have the most impact.”

“If Proposition 5 passes, taxpayers around the state could face significant impacts regarding the potential for increased taxes. By lowering the threshold for passing local bond measures, Proposition 5 makes it easier for local governments to impose new taxes to fund projects like affordable housing, transportation, and parks. This change could lead to a surge in local bond measures, increasing the financial burden on communities. The current supermajority requirement, established by Proposition 13, protects taxpayers from frequent tax hikes. Easing this restriction could result in more taxes being levied, straining household budgets and potentially impacting economic stability at the local level.”

Our panel of experts: Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Samantha Corbin, Jon Costantino, Richard Costigan, Tim Foster, Rex Frazier, John Howard, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Steven Maviglio, Mike MeCey, Paul Mitchell, Barbara O’Connor, Jack Ohman, Kassy Perry, Matt Rexroad, Garry South, Paula Treat, Micah Weinberg, Bill Wong, Daniel Zingale