Latino voters may be the key to ballot measure battles

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OPINION — In addition to governor, congressional, state and local races, voters in California will decide on 14 statewide ballot measures this November, plus whatever initiatives are on their local ballot. It’s a long list with consequential implications for the state, yet many California Latinos have heard little about the measures.

Latinos make up nearly 40% of California’s population and roughly 30% of the state’s eligible voters. But a recent survey of Latino likely voters found limited awareness of key ballot measures and a significant gap between the outreach they want and what they receive. A majority of voters, and in some cases, a substantial majority, haven’t heard anything about the measures.

Recent elections have demonstrated why that matters. Consider Proposition 50. A CalMatters analysis found that Latino-majority precincts showed significant shifts in support for the measure compared with the 2024 presidential vote. The takeaway is straightforward: Latino voters are politically independent, and their support cannot be assumed based on how they voted in the last election.

With less than a month to go, opinions remain divided. Consider this: On Proposition 39, the voter ID measure, voters are evenly split: 47% support it and 47% oppose it. Support for Proposition 40, the billionaire tax measure, has tightened since August, with Yes holding a narrow 49% to 43% lead and 41% of voters undecided or not firmly committed to their positions.

Awareness remains limited across all four of the highest profile ballot initiatives. Just 39% recall hearing anything about Proposition 39 and 47% about Proposition 40. Awareness is even lower for Propositions 44 (Health Clinic Spending) and 45 (CEQA), at just 9% and 11%, respectively. Those last two measures also have particularly large shares of voters who are undecided or not firmly committed.

These findings underscore a larger point: Latino voters have the potential to shape the outcome of consequential ballot measures, yet many are approaching Election Day with limited information about the choices before them.

Stepping back from the ballot measures, an even bigger gap is apparent: Campaigns are falling short in their Spanish-language outreach to Latino voters in California. Nearly three-quarters of Hispanic voters (73%) said they haven’t seen, read or heard from any campaigns or candidates in Spanish in recent weeks. 61% say it is important that campaigns communicate in Spanish, an increase from the 57% who said it was important when asked a month earlier – the closer we get to the election, the more important it is.

In these crucial final weeks, Spanish-language outreach remains important to Hispanic voters, not just in California, but across the country.

Voters don’t demand that every ad be entirely in Spanish, but they want to be part of the conversation. Making an effort to earn someone’s vote matters, and in-language outreach connects in a way that adds value beyond the message itself.

The question is whether campaigns are engaging Latino voters with the same intensity with which they are competing for their votes.

Less than a month remains. Across every campaign, the challenge is straightforward: explain what the propositions do, communicate clearly and make that information accessible to the voters whose decisions will help shape California’s future.

Latino households do not divide their lives into categories. The family that chooses a bank, a car or a phone plan also chooses a governor and a ballot measure. Advertisers figured that out long ago. Campaigns have yet to catch up.

The voters have told us what they want. It’s time for campaigns to start listening, before time runs out.

Daniel Alegre is the CEO of TelevisaUnivision.