Polls vs prediction markets: Contrasting perspectives on the governor’s race

Congressman Eric Swalwell outside of the Capitol Weekly office. Photo by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly

Two Republicans lead polling in the California gubernatorial race, but major prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and ForecastEx all say it’s Congressman Eric Swalwell’s race to lose. Why are their predictions so different? Which is more likely to be correct? Might prediction markets and the wisdom of the crowds threaten pollsters who have taken a beating in recent elections?

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Podcast

Covering the Capitol, with Lia Russell of the Sacramento Bee

Rich Ehisen (L) and Lia Russell (R) in the Capitol Weekly office. Photo by Tim Foster

CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: Today’s guest is Sacramento Bee reporter Lia Russell. Russell covers the governor for The Bee’s Capitol Bureau, and was part of the team that broke the story of Dana Williamson’s arrest last year.  We asked about that story, covering the capitol, and what it was like to cover politics in their earlier gigs in Bangor, Maine and Baltimore, Maryland.

Opinion

AB 1709 leaves parents and kids exposed where it matters most

Image by Thawatchai Chawong.

OPINION – As AB 1709 moves to the California State Assembly Privacy and Consumer Protection Committee, lawmakers have an opportunity to get this right. Strengthen the definitions. Close the loopholes. Protect student privacy. And most importantly, ensure that parents—not tech companies—remain at the center of decisions about their children’s digital lives. 

Opinion

Voters oppose advanced manufacturing CEQA exemptions

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OPINION – When lawmakers passed Senate Bill 131, exempting more than 75 categories of industrial facilities from California’s landmark environmental review law, perhaps they assumed voters either weren’t paying attention or didn’t care.

News

Will CA be next to offer Ink of Hope for trafficking victims?

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If a bill by Assemblymember Diane Dixon becomes law, tattoo artists would join a long list of professionals required to be trained in spotting signs of human trafficking, including first responders, healthcare workers, educators, hospitality staff, transportation workers, social workers and more.

News

California’s higher education Master Plan in flux?

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Faced with growing concerns that California’s higher education system is outdated and unresponsive to the needs of an increasingly diverse student population, lawmakers are considering more structural changes to the state Master Plan’s vision of university and college education.

Opinion

Ending Medi-Cal coverage of GLP-1s is short-sighted thinking

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OPINION – Modern GLP-1 medicines are evidence-based therapies that help patients achieve meaningful, sustained weight loss and reduce the risk of heart disease, type 2 diabetes, stroke and orthopedic complications. For many patients, these medications can change the course of their health and prevent the very surgeries I perform.

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