Lt. Gov. Gavin in ad for his gubernatorial campaign. (Screen capture)OPINION: With ballots in the mail and primary day a week away, Gavin Newsom recently ran a TV spot aimed at one of his five gubernatorial opponents – Republican John Cox. The broadside focused on guns and called attention to Cox’s support for the National Rifle Association and his opposition to gun control. Smart move, you say.
Santa's sleigh zips past the state Capitol. The holiday season is now well under way. Christmas carols are taking over every extant means of mass communication and there’s so much goodwill around the squirrels in Capitol Park have quit chasing each other across the lawn. In the spirit of peace and love, then, we bring forth our First Annual Gift List for California political types.
A Ventura County voter casts a ballot in the June 2016 primary. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)Any sound voter analysis tries to identify prior events that hopefully serve to predict future voter behavior. For this we examine several past elections, including the gubernatorial elections we mentioned in Part I, and other recent presidential primaries. But each appears somewhat flawed as a predictor of what the 2018 primary will look like.
John Chiang, then state controller and now California treasurer, at a 2013 gathering. (Photo: Ryan Miller/Invision/AP )State Treasurer John Chiang said Monday he is “very interested” in running for governor in 2018 and will decide early next year whether to launch a campaign. Chiang, who served two terms as state controller before being elected treasurer in 2o14, is the latest in a number of prominent Democrats who have announced their intention to run for governor or are at least considering the job.
Field Poll: Three Democrats –- former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti –- receive the largest proportions of early voter support. Greater than four in ten voters say they would be inclined to vote for Villaraigosa and Newsom, and nearly as many say this about Garcetti (36%) if they were to be candidates for Governor in 2018.
Field Poll: Two individuals in this test receive the highest levels of potential voter support. They are Republican Condoleezza Rice, former U. S. Secretary of State (49%) and Democratic State Attorney General Kamala Harris (46%). Harris is the only person to date to have formally announced her candidacy in the Senate race.
Former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Attorney General Kamala Harris. (Photos, Shutterstock. Composite, Tim Foster)ANALYSIS: There are rumblings beneath the surface about the danger of a race-tinged political war breaking out within the California Democratic Party. Antonio Villaraigosa’s challenge is to rouse the big Latino population of Los Angeles and the rest of California on his behalf in a primary race against fellow Democrat Kamala Harris. He realizes more than anyone the huge, mostly untapped, potential of the Latino vote. Harris would have the Northern California Democratic establishment, and, presumably, the preponderance of African-American voters on her side.
The sprawling Central Valley of California, the world's richest farm belt. (Photo: ).As state attorney general, Kamala Harris has given key issues of the Central Valley particular attention, which could play politically well for her 2016 run for Sen. Barbara Boxer’s soon-to-be vacant seat. Rich in Latinos, most of whom are Democrats, the Central Valley could prove to be a decisive battleground, especially if a Latino enters the fray.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, pondering a run for the U.S. Senate in 2016, has slightly better name recognition than rival Democrat Kamala Harris and could benefit from an energized Latino electorate, according to a survey released by the Legislative Latino Caucus. The survey also reflected some strength for Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin, a Republican.