An illustration suggesting the variations in the voting population. (Image: Julian Tromeur, via Shutterstock)There are plenty of things to look at now that California counties have updated their voter files with the 2018 general election vote history. This is our first chance to see what really happened, as opposed to what people thought had happened based on the outcomes.
Attendees at a 2016 political rally in Santa Monica. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)The 2018 primary election is right around the corner. And with stories of higher turnout and a Democratic wave in states like Virginia and Alabama, many political consultants and observers are expecting to see some higher turnout in California this June, with a potentially strong Democratic and Latino surge.
An illustration of California's flag. (Lukasz Stefanski, Shutterstock)Immediately after the 2016 there were a number of people and organizations that made quick analyses of the electorate, and what happened. Here in California, we appeared to be bucking a national trend: While the Republican ticket over performed in key swing states on the East Coast and upper mid-west, California saw Democrats regain legislative super-majorities in both houses, hold swing congressional seats and make Republicans appear more vulnerable than they have in many years.
Illustration by Judd Hertzler/Capitol Weekly.ANALYSIS: Most politicos are fans of the movie The Candidate, a 1972 political drama where a U.S. Senate candidate, Bill McKay, seeks an underdog win in his first campaign. The energy and excitement builds up for months leading to a pivotal sunny Tuesday in California when everyone heads to the polls. The movie is filled with young excited volunteers rushing out to put up door hangers, check polling locations to see who’s voted, and make phone calls to those who haven’t – all parts of the traditional get out the vote efforts known in the business as G.O.T.V. But if this campaign were a modern campaign it would also be a losing campaign.
Jerry Brown maintains his strong lead among likely voters in the governor’s race against Neel Kashkari. Among two statewide ballot measures that Brown is campaigning for, Proposition 1—the $7.5 billion water bond—continues to have majority support and Proposition 2—the “rainy day fund”—has gained ground since September, with about half of likely voters in favor today.
Jerry Brown holds a 21 point lead over Neel Kashkari among likely voters in the governor’s race, and there is majority support both for a state water bond.Likely voters are more divided on two other statewide ballot initiatives, one that would establish a budget stabilization account—or rainy day fund—and another that would give the state insurance commissioner authority over changes in health insurance rates.
A California voter casts a ballot. (Photo: Vepar5)Election 2014: As California voters head to the polls, state elections officials report a continued surge in the percentage of registered voters with no party preference and further erosion in the percentages of voters registered with the Republican and Democratic parties.