Image by Cagkan SayinThere’s only two weeks before the completion of the 2024 March Primary and early numbers are suggesting an historically low turnout. Will this have an impact on a big race like the US Senate contest? Maybe.
If you’re one of the hundreds of candidates for the Legislature, Congress, or even the pending US Senate race, one data question is hovering over everything you’re planning for the 2024 primary election: what will turnout look like?
Photo by Ray Buse via ShutterstockIn counties like Los Angeles, we see almost no increase in Latino share of votes cast from 2014-2022, and even drops in electoral impact of older Latinos.
A 2019 political rally in San Diego for U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. (Photo: John Hancock, via Shutterstock)Watching analyses of this coming election can be a bit like watching a tennis match. The lead in many races – from US Senate contests to local competitive house and legislative districts, has seemingly volleyed back and forth for months. If it all seems less stable than past elections, that’s not just your perception – it really is.
L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti announces Asian American Pacific Islander Day at City Hall in May. (Photo: Ringo Chiu)Asian American Pacific Islanders, or AAPI, is a rising political force, but it has yet to flex its full muscle. About 16 percent of the nation’s 22 million people identified as Asian and Pacific Islander Americans live in California, according to the latest census, but the community’s elected state officeholder are less than their numbers suggest.
An illustration of voters preparing their ballots for mailing. (Image: Lightspring, via Shutterstock)A recent dustup with the California Republican Party using unofficial dropboxes as a version of so-called “ballot harvesting” has brought the state’s ballot delivery process under a national spotlight. Much of this controversy can be attributed to the misleading way in which the law has been interpreted, most commonly by people who are trying to conjure up scandal and supposed misdeeds by campaigns that organize such efforts and win.
Jackie Fielder, candidate in the 11th Senate District. (Photo: Fielder campaign)Jackie Fielder is an activist and educator with her sights set on California’s 11th Senate District, hoping in an uphill race to topple incumbent state Sen. Scott Wiener, a fellow Democrat. Fielder is young (25), educated (Stanford University), a person of color (both Native American and Latina), an environmental protester and an activist with a background in grassroots organizing. She describes herself as a Democratic Socialist.
Voter registration forms at the Santa Cruz County registrar's office. (Photo: Political Data, Inc.)About 4 million-plus independent voters who are eligible to vote in the Democratic Primary will see no presidential candidates at all on their ballots. What?? Yes. In March 2020, in one of the hottest primary elections in recent history, where California is set to play a more important role than usual as the largest state on Super Tuesday, there will be approximately 3.5 million voters receiving blank presidential ballots.
Voters in their booths casting ballots in a Los Angeles election. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)One constant in California elections is change. In the past 20 years, we’ve seen changes to when the primary is held, then changed back, then back again. We’ve seen an open primary, then another version of the open primary. We shook up the Legislature with term limits, then imposed different term limits. We have moved increasingly to vote by mail, shifting the timeline of our elections.
Attendees at a 2018 political rally in Santa Ana. (Photo: Juan Camilo Bernal, via Shutterstock)In the 2016 and 2018 election cycles, Capitol Weekly conducted several surveys for the primary and general elections. We examined voters’ opinions on the contests for president, U.S. Senate, governor, Legislature and Congress, as well as on ballot measureas before California voters. In total, we heard from over 100,000 voters, providing us with a significant dataset of voters and their preferences.