Illustration by Tashatuvango, via Shutterstock. Is something wrong with public polling in California? The 2018 election season has been raucous, even weeks before the first votes are cast. And one of the contributing factors has been the seemingly erratic public polling, particularly in the top-of-the-ticket races. The veteran political observers at CalBuzz have called this year’s polling a “muddled mess.”
Attendees at a 2016 political rally in Santa Monica. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)The 2018 primary election is right around the corner. And with stories of higher turnout and a Democratic wave in states like Virginia and Alabama, many political consultants and observers are expecting to see some higher turnout in California this June, with a potentially strong Democratic and Latino surge.
A fire truck races to an emergency in downtown Los Angeles, 2016. (Photo Alexandre Moraes, via Shutterstock)FairWarning: November’s presidential contest was bizarre in many ways, but there is one peculiarity that pundits haven’t pounced on: The states with the worst rates of traffic deaths in the country went solidly for Donald Trump while Hillary Clinton swept states with the lowest fatality rates. California was 10th from the bottom in its traffic fatality rate — about 8.11 deaths per 100,000 people. The highest was Wyoming, with 24.74 fatalities per 100,000.
A portion of California's June 7 ballot. (Photo: Tim Foster/Capitol Weekly)When nonpartisan voters were asked how, exactly, they were going to get a Democratic ballot, we saw evidence of widespread confusion. Nearly 60% of those surveyed either incorrectly thought that the Democratic candidates would be on their ballot — as happens in other open primary contests — or they weren’t sure how to vote in the Democratic presidential race.
Rookie Assemblymember Patty Lopez, a political novice who captured the 39th Assembly District in a dramatic upset, is being outspent 10-to-1 by her opponent – the same person she beat two years ago for the San Fernando Valley seat.
Voters and potential voters at a political rally. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)The California Voter File is a massive and constantly changing dataset. At the end of the 2012 election cycle, it grew to over 18 million voters. But with recent purges from county election files, it has dropped down to its current 17 million. As we near a major statewide election, we expect to see an uptick in registration and growth of the overall voter file. The state’s registration is likely — again — to exceed 18 million, and potentially even reach 19 million by November.
FIELD POLL: The poll finds a statistical tie in the non-partisan contest for Superintendent of Public Instruction. Likely voters currently divide 31% in support of educator Marshall Tuck, 28% for incumbent State Schools Superintendent Tom Torlakson, and a huge 41% undecided.