Posts Tagged: congressional

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CA120: California’s congressional battleground

Outside the House office of California Republican Congressman Darrell Issa, who plans to retire, following an apparent uptick in Democratic strength in his district. (Photo: Katherine Welles)>

The national narrative on the 2018 election goes something like this: The first midterm election of a new president always goes strongly against the party in power. President Trump has been more unpopular in his first term than any in the modern age of polling, so this could get very bad for Republicans.

News

CA120: An odd tale of prisoners and redistricting

General population prisoners at San Quentin march in a line. (Photo: Eric Risberg/Associated Press)>

Much of redistricting law is arcane and technical. But often what seems like a little detail can become a significant factor in how the lines will be drawn. Take, for example, prisoners. The U.S. Census counts prisoners just like any other part of the overall population. The Census captures people at their “usual residence,” meaning the place where they live and sleep most days.

News

CA120: California’s shifting populations

A San Francisco street scene. (Photo: Oneinchpunch, via Shutterstock)

Part 3: As California grows, the shifts of population within the state can have a dramatic impact on the drawing of future political boundaries. These shifts can be broken into two different types of population counts: The absolute population counts as defined by the 2020 U.S. Census, and the citizen voting age populations, or CVAP.

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CA120: High diversity, but low turnout looms in 2018

A Ventura County voter casts a ballot in the June 2016 primary. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)

Any sound voter analysis tries to identify prior events that hopefully serve to predict future voter behavior. For this we examine several past elections, including the gubernatorial elections we mentioned in Part I, and other recent presidential primaries. But each appears somewhat flawed as a predictor of what the 2018 primary will look like.

News

Buckle up: Here come the 2018 election fights

A political rally in 2016 prior to the primary election. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)

CA120: The 2016 elections have yet to fade in our rear-view mirror, but already the most important topic in Sacramento — and nationally — is the coming 2018 election cycle. After a tumultuous 2016, many of us are expecting the mid-term elections to be a deep and engaging referendum on the current administration and whatever intervening events occur in the coming year and a half.

News

CA120: Issa down; Prop. 61, death penalty repeal up

Doug Applegate, left, and Darrell Issa. (Photo illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)

EXIT POLL: What a year it has been for polling-related news in California – please try to contain your excitement. The venerable Field Poll went online (shades of Dylan Goes Electric). Meanwhile, USC and the LA Times combined to produce the most, um, “noteworthy” poll of the cycle (shades of Dewey Defeats Truman), which polling Director Dan Schnur posted on twitter “is wrong, but still gives us important info…”

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Exit poll: The down-ballot races

Voters in Ventura County cast ballots during a recent election. (Photo: Spirit of America, Shutterstock)

CA120: Will Orange County, along with neighboring San Diego and the Inland Empire, look a little bluer on Wednesday? If so, is it a harbinger of things to come? Or is it just the impact of the Democratic presidential primary still being contested while Donald Trump has the GOP nomination wrapped up?

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Exit poll: In tight CA race, absentee voters favor Hillary

Presidential candidates. (Illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)

CA120: With just hours until polls close in California, the crucial Democratic presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders appears to be tightening. On the Republican side, the unopposed presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump is trying to show that he can consolidate the Republican electorate behind his candidacy.

News

Youngest contender runs in 2nd Congressional District

Erin Schrode, candidate for the 2nd Congressional District. (Photo: Teens Turning Greeg. org

Twenty-five-year-old Erin Schrode, a Democrat, is running for the House in the 2nd Congressional District, which includes coastal counties north of the Golden Gate Bridge to the Oregon line. She is the youngest candidate in any of California’s 53 House races and may be the youngest in the nation. She actually turned 25 during the campaign – the minimum required age to serve in the House.

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Trump and California’s GOP Latinos

Latinos protesting Donald Trump at an entrance to the site of the state GOP convention in Burlingame. (Photo: Alex Matthews, Capitol Weekly)

For Latino voters in California, presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s anti-immigration pronouncements present a dilemma. But for Latino Republicans, the challenge is especially difficult.

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