Posts Tagged: congressional

Analysis

Fight for the House: Democrats smell victory

The House membership in the 114th Congress. (Photo: Wikipedia)

Nine races in November could determine which party controls the House for the next decade—and the map looks good for Democrats. This fall, Democrats face a bad map in the Senate and are in a tough battle to take back the House. But the party is on offense in nine crucial contests around the country that could determine control of Congress for the next decade.

Podcast

Capitol Weekly Podcast: Paul Mitchell

Image: California Secretary of State

There’s a lot going on here: A fifth of the electorate has already voted by mail, and more mailed ballots are coming in all the time. A lot of millennials got signed up through the registration program at the DMV, but what impact will that have on the contests? It looks like the SF Bay Area will outperform — again — L.A., and it’s still not clear whether a gaggle of GOP congressional incumbents are really vulnerable.

News

CA120: California’s congressional battleground

Outside the House office of California Republican Congressman Darrell Issa, who plans to retire, following an apparent uptick in Democratic strength in his district. (Photo: Katherine Welles)>

The national narrative on the 2018 election goes something like this: The first midterm election of a new president always goes strongly against the party in power. President Trump has been more unpopular in his first term than any in the modern age of polling, so this could get very bad for Republicans.

News

CA120: An odd tale of prisoners and redistricting

General population prisoners at San Quentin march in a line. (Photo: Eric Risberg/Associated Press)>

Much of redistricting law is arcane and technical. But often what seems like a little detail can become a significant factor in how the lines will be drawn. Take, for example, prisoners. The U.S. Census counts prisoners just like any other part of the overall population. The Census captures people at their “usual residence,” meaning the place where they live and sleep most days.

News

CA120: California’s shifting populations

A San Francisco street scene. (Photo: Oneinchpunch, via Shutterstock)

Part 3: As California grows, the shifts of population within the state can have a dramatic impact on the drawing of future political boundaries. These shifts can be broken into two different types of population counts: The absolute population counts as defined by the 2020 U.S. Census, and the citizen voting age populations, or CVAP.

News

CA120: High diversity, but low turnout looms in 2018

A Ventura County voter casts a ballot in the June 2016 primary. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)

Any sound voter analysis tries to identify prior events that hopefully serve to predict future voter behavior. For this we examine several past elections, including the gubernatorial elections we mentioned in Part I, and other recent presidential primaries. But each appears somewhat flawed as a predictor of what the 2018 primary will look like.

News

Buckle up: Here come the 2018 election fights

A political rally in 2016 prior to the primary election. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)

CA120: The 2016 elections have yet to fade in our rear-view mirror, but already the most important topic in Sacramento — and nationally — is the coming 2018 election cycle. After a tumultuous 2016, many of us are expecting the mid-term elections to be a deep and engaging referendum on the current administration and whatever intervening events occur in the coming year and a half.

News

CA120: Issa down; Prop. 61, death penalty repeal up

Doug Applegate, left, and Darrell Issa. (Photo illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)

EXIT POLL: What a year it has been for polling-related news in California – please try to contain your excitement. The venerable Field Poll went online (shades of Dylan Goes Electric). Meanwhile, USC and the LA Times combined to produce the most, um, “noteworthy” poll of the cycle (shades of Dewey Defeats Truman), which polling Director Dan Schnur posted on twitter “is wrong, but still gives us important info…”

News

Exit poll: The down-ballot races

Voters in Ventura County cast ballots during a recent election. (Photo: Spirit of America, Shutterstock)

CA120: Will Orange County, along with neighboring San Diego and the Inland Empire, look a little bluer on Wednesday? If so, is it a harbinger of things to come? Or is it just the impact of the Democratic presidential primary still being contested while Donald Trump has the GOP nomination wrapped up?

News

Exit poll: In tight CA race, absentee voters favor Hillary

Presidential candidates. (Illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)

CA120: With just hours until polls close in California, the crucial Democratic presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders appears to be tightening. On the Republican side, the unopposed presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump is trying to show that he can consolidate the Republican electorate behind his candidacy.

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