Experts Expound

Will California’s 2016 presidential primary be meaningless — again?

“Too little, too late? Will California’s 2016 presidential primary be meaningless in the process of picking a president?”

Isn’t it always?

It will be meaningless as usual . .

Too early to know. The contest – in both parties – is a study in chaos at a time when the electorate could be a gathering storm. Traditional political money favors Bush and Clinton, bombast has elevated Trump among those who vote but never think, enthusiastic crowds have pushed Sanders beyond the Quixotic. Quite simply, anything can happen. It is entirely possible that no candidate will seize control before the brawl lurches into California.

Reeps, maybe. Dems, probably not.

In order for the Republican primary to matter in California, the field would have to be totally distracted by a candidate that can’t ultimately win for months on end, and then finally consolidate around a real nominee in the waning days of Spring 2016.  Unlikely, but on track.

The Republican nomination may well be decided before the California presidential primary but, with so many candidates, the positioning for delegate appointments to the national convention will be confusing, as well as the process for integrating the national and state party operations for the elections in California.

In order for the Democratic nomination to matter in California, it would have to first matter in the rest of the country.  If Hillary is the only option, then we could have the California primary tomorrow and it still would be meaningless.

In reality, no one believed Trump would still be around.  Many Rep candidates are hanging on with PACs that have enough resources to continue for quite a while.  Clinton is a big question mark at the moment.  So, It’s hard to see a way that we are relevant but this is the craziest, least predictable race anyone of us has ever seen.

Who knows?”

There are many of us who hope that the GOP shit show continues and it drives up turnout for the Democratic base. The Democratic side doesn’t seem to be exciting folks.

Yes. California is out of it.  The presidential candidates will be picked long before California votes … and then our electoral college votes will go to Bernie Sanders.

With a reasonable possibility it could be a brokered convention, the only hope for California Democrats to have influence is if Jerry Brown runs as a favorite son so he can be a kingmaker. I shouldn’t have given him the idea.

For the Republicans, it’ll be interesting because it may not be all over before it gets here. Bring in the campaigns!

Given the unprecedented number of GOP candidates and the uncertainty surrounding a race that will likely not be decided after the first four primaries/caucuses, there is a very strong chance that California will play a larger role than normal in deciding the party’s presidential nominee.

Yes. We’re a one-party state and that party has pre-ordained their candidate for the voters. But we’ll see plenty of each candidate raising money along the coast

While I would love to see California play a role in deciding 2016 Presidential primary – I do not believe we will have a significant role on the Republican side. In fact I fear given that many Republicans do not engage – we could end up with a small group of highly engaged conservative activists choosing a candidate such as Donald Trump and sending the message that California is out of step with other Republicans.  The reverse argument for Democrats is also applicable – candidates such as Hillary Clinton will have to pay more significant attention to California, or an otherwise liberal voting block will support Bernie Sanders.

Ed’s Note: Those from whom we sought opinions include Andrew Acosta, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Mark Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, Richard Costigan, J. Dale Debber, Peter DeMarco, Mike Donovan, Jim Evans, Rex Frazier, Tom Gede, Ken Gibson, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Sandy Harrison, Bob Hertzberg, Gale Kaufman, Jason Kinney, Dave Lesher, Elizabeth Leslie, Chris Lehane, Greg Lucas, Donna Lucas, Mike Madrid, Aaron McLear, Nicole Mahrt, Steve Maviglio, Jacob Mejia, Beth Miller, Paul Mitchell , Barbara O’Connor, Kassy Perry, Jack Pitney, Matt Rexroad, Roger Salazar, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Ray Sotero, Garry South, Kevin Spillane, Robin Swanson, Paula Treat, Ben Tulchin, Angie Wei, Scott Wetch. 



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