Experts Expound

Experts Expound

“Does Gavin Newsom’s departure from the 2010 Democratic race for governor help Jerry Brown?”

You mean Gov.-elect Jerry Brown?

Let’s see…..instead of spending $10-20 million in a primary fight and having to take positions to mollify the left, he has to do neither…sounds like it helps to me!

Of course. The more money he can raise, the better off Jerry Brown will be in the general, facing one of two self financing billionnaires.  the real question is … does Gavin Newsom’s departure help spur California voters excitement for the governor’s race?
On the one hand, it relieves him of the need to spend money on primary-specific activities.  On the other hand, it deprives him of the opportunity to resharpen his campaign skills.  Brown has not run in a truly competitive election for statewide office since 1982.  (In the 2006 attorney general race, Delgadillo was silly and Poochigian was underfunded.)

Absolutely.

Duh.  In a race where the Democratic nominee is likely to face a self-funded billionaire with personal baggage, the ability to unite the party base and conserve resources is invaluable. The counter-rationale that Jerry Brown’s lack of primary opposition will somehow attract an unexpected and viable late entry into the race who otherwise wouldn’t have run, doesn’t hold up.  Neither does the premise that the media would have given him a free pass if he wasn’t running unopposed.  And the progressive hand-wringers who think a primary “helps” Democrats seem to forget that this isn’t 2008 and no statewide candidate will be able to print money the way Barack Obama did.   

Absolutely. Now Brown can try to hide under the covers for the next seven months as the GOP contenders slug it out.

How can it not help? Unless another Democrat jumps in, someone stronger than Newsom, Hizzoner’s departure spares Brown a primary fight. Normally, a primary gives candidates the chance to hone skills and battle test campaign teams, but Brown is a seasoned pro who doesn’t need the shake-down cruise.

Yes.  But there is plenty of time for another candidate to get into the race.

Not to be trite but ‘Does a wild bear poop in the woods? Not if it’s a polar bear.” Does anyone who isn’t one of Newsome’s San Francisco groupies actually think he was a contender? Not anyone with a brain. Therefore, in our reality distorted world, it helps Jerry Brown only because it gives the media less to say about a contest and more to say about the “presumptive candidate.”

Did Asm. Mike Duvall’s same-day resignation help wash the hands of Speaker Karen Bass?

Did Arnold Schwarzenegger’s trip to Iraq help raise his national presence? Did John Garamendi’s primary win over Sen. DeSaulnier make the Lt. Guv’s subsequent special election Congressional victory a cakewalk?

Perhaps, only because an unopposed primary enables Jerry to conserve more resources for the general. But Jerry was going to win the primary with or without Gavin, and probably win the general just as easily in any event.
Sure, there’s no serious competition now!

Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Mark Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, Morgan Crinklaw, J Dale Debber, Peter DeMarco, Jim Evans, Kathy Fairbanks, Jeff Fuller, Rex Frazier, Ken Gibson, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Sandy Harrison, Bob Hertzberg, Jason Kinney, Greg Lucas, Mike Madrid, Nicole Mahrt, Steve Maviglio,  Adam Mendelsohn, Barbara O’Connor, Bill Packer, Kassy Perry, Jack Pitney, Adam Probolsky, Tony Quinn, Matt Rexroad, Matt Ross, Roger Salazar, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Ralph Simoni, Sam Sorich, Ray Sotero, Garry South, Kevin Spillane, Robin Swanson, Angie Wei, Rich Zeiger.


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