Experts Expound

“The Whitman-Poizner contest for governor: Is the race narrowing? What’s your sense of how far apart these candidates really are?”

Yes, the race is absolutely narrowing. It will be neck and neck all the way to Election Day. The winner by a nose is…

I’ve seen three private polls in the last week. This race is on. Single digit separation and closing.

If she is worth $1.2 billion I would guess they are about $500 million apart.

The race is narrowing to focus on a Democratic victory in November….

Not only is the race narrowing, but Poizner will be the nominee. Currently, the real word is that Poizner is less than 10 and more than 2 points behind statewide. However, in areas where there are more likely GOP voters —  the cow counties, for instance — he is ahead significantly. Whitman has reached that point — like in a physical fall — where she knows she’s going down and can only hope for a graceful landing. It is unlikely.

The race is definitely narrowing.  Poizner’s hits on Goldman Sachs and immigration have been effective.  If Poizner gets through the primary though, he does not have enough resources on his own to win the general election and will not get it from the donor community.

It’s narrowing dramatically. Money can’t buy you love.

Everyone — including Whitman’s campaign — concedes that the race has narrowed. The question isn’t “how narrow” but who has momentum for the final sprint. Both sides are shoveling bullshit at voters at a record clip, and both sides have the kind of unlimited resources that allow them to continue that frantic pace. The final week ought to be a classic. Who’s ahead? Well, it ain’t the voters.

It’s narrowing. Either Whitman’s campaign is losing traction because of the saturation-level of anti-Poizner adds, or Poizner is gaining traction because he bobs and weaves. Or maybe Poizner is gaining because people are tiring of Whitman.

It looks like he is within striking distance now, which means he may be competitive in the absentee ballot portion of the race, and about one-third of permanent absentee voters return their ballots within one week of receipt.

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