Presidential candidates. (Illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)CA120: With just hours until polls close in California, the crucial Democratic presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders appears to be tightening. On the Republican side, the unopposed presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump is trying to show that he can consolidate the Republican electorate behind his candidacy.
A rally for Democratic presidential contender Bernie Sanders in Irvine, May 22. (Photo: mikeledray, via Shutterstock)At long last, we were to be The Deciders. After more than 50 years, Californians were going to pick the Republican nominee for president! Ted Cruz was vowing to make his last stand against Donald Trump right here, with his back against the Pacific! San Francisco Republicans would become objects of desire instead of an endangered species!
A portion of California's June 7 ballot. (Photo: Tim Foster/Capitol Weekly)When nonpartisan voters were asked how, exactly, they were going to get a Democratic ballot, we saw evidence of widespread confusion. Nearly 60% of those surveyed either incorrectly thought that the Democratic candidates would be on their ballot — as happens in other open primary contests — or they weren’t sure how to vote in the Democratic presidential race.
PPIC: Californians have deeply mixed views about the major political parties, with fewer than one in four viewing the GOP favorably and about half giving Democrats a thumbs up, according to the latest survey by the Public Policy Institute of California. About 49 percent of all adults reported a favorable impression of the Democratic party, while only 23 percent have a favorable view of the Republicans, down about 7 points since December.
Republican presidential contender Donald Trump at a campaign event. (Photo: Joseph Sohm) “In the history of Republican primaries, I’ve gotten the most votes in the history of the Republican party,” Trump said during his speech on Friday, April 29, at the California Republican Party Convention south of San Francisco. Trump went on to say he’s broken the record without needing to wait for big states like California. Was Trump right? We set out on a fact check.
California supporters of Bernie Sanders attend a rally. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)CA120: Sanders has been stronger in states like California with “open” primaries — those that allow non-Democrats voters to cast a ballot. California Democrats allow voters not registered with any other political party to vote in their primary. But the question is this: In what numbers will these non-partisans vote? Can Sanders surf this wave of support to a victory in California? The answer, according to our data, is probably not.
A California ballot box. (Photo illustration, Hafakot, via Shutterstock)California’s fledgling top-two voting system, which creates an open primary for all statewide candidates, could prove costly to Democrats in liberal districts while rewarding Republicans who lose. In heavily liberal areas in Northern California, voters could be presented with the choice of two Democrats and no Republicans in the general election.
Voters casting ballots in Ventura County during an earlier election. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, Shutterstock)As we enter the June primary, we have an electorate that has been seen in polling to be more energized and with a desire to vote more commonly in general elections. The last time we had anything close to this kind of engagement was during the 2008 presidential primary. Since then, we have seen a 35% growth in No Party Preference registrations and an 88% spike in the number of Permanent Absentee Voters. In total, the population of non-partisan voters who get their ballots by mail has nearly tripled.
Republican presidential candidates at a March 3 debate. (Photo: Associated Press/Paui Sancya)CA120: Our online California poll of 1,165 high propensity Republican voters has Trump currently atop the leader board by a comfortable margin. Trump receives 41% of the vote, to Ted Cruz’s 23% and John Kasich’s 21%. A separate sample of 466 Republicans registered since the turn of the New Year has Trump ahead 53%-21%-15%, indicating that Trump’s overall lead among the expected turnout is a few points greater.
Voters in Ventura County cast ballots during a recent election. (Photo: Spirit of America, Shutterstock)California’s clogged, high-stakes November ballot is riveting voters’ attention – and raising fears among those who have to count the votes. It’s a perfect storm: Intense interest in the presidential general election, a deluge of six dozen ballot in initiatives cleared for circulation, labor-intensive signature-verification requirements and the likelihood that the potential initiatives will be submitted in a tight time window, thus further straining resources.