Posts Tagged: early voting

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CA120: Will vote-by-mail conspiracies rain on Republicans’ parade?

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Heading into Election Day we have seen shifts nationally that appear to advantage Republicans, putting the GOP on track to regain control of Congress and pushing a number of competitive races in California into “toss-up” territory. But with Republicans knocking on the door of potential gains, even despite a redistricting that appeared to reinforce Democratic districts and weaken Republican-held seats, could their own messaging on vote by mail get in the way?

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CA120: The early vote and the roller coaster of Election Day

An image of California voting materials. (Photo: Jason Raff, via Shutterstock)

As has been reported in Capitol Weekly, the early vote has been dominated by Democratic voters. This is in direct contrast to every other election in California history in which Republicans have over-performed in the early returns, leaving Democrats to play catch-up in the late mail and Election Day vote.

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An early-voting survey of the ballot propositions

A voter drops off his ballot. (Image: vepar5, via Shutterstock)

Capitol Weekly’s tracking poll of by-mail voters has been running since Oct. 13 and reflects the ballooning numbers of early returns. This electorate, as reported in a prior CA120 article, overwhelmingly leans Democratic, with a significant number of likely Republican voters still expected to turn out on Election Day. As a result, the findings on ballot measures explored in this initial report skew to the left.  For experienced poll watchers, this is the opposite of the early exit polling that often skews Republican.

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