Stem cell initiative poised to qualify for November

The $5.5 billion California stem cell initiative is virtually certain to qualify for the fall ballot as the arithmetic of the signature count begins to fall into place.

The measure needs only slightly more than the 67 percent of the signatures that remain to be verified as coming from registered voters. The qualification percentage of raw signatures so far is 78 percent.

California Stem Cell Initiative: Current Shortfall for Ballot Qualification

(Source: California Secretary of State 6/5/2020/California Stem Cell Report)

It is unlikely that that the qualification rate for remaining raw signatures would drop as low as 66 per percent unless something quite unusual occurs. Only 18 of the 58 counties have yet to verify their raw signatures, which total 305,312. The initiative needs 203,845 verified signatures to make the ballot.

The ballot initiative is aimed at saving the California stem cell agency from financial extinction. Known formally as the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), the agency has nearly run through the $3 billion it received from voters in 2004. Without a major cash infusion, it will begin closing its doors next fall.

The campaign is shooting for the quickest way to the ballot. It submitted 924,189 raw signatures about one month ago. Legally, the measure needs only 623,212 signatures that are verified to have come from registered voters.

However, the state permits a combination of a random and hand count total of 110 percent of that number to qualify a measure without going to a signature-by-signature verification. County election officials are currently in the combination, random sample phase of checking the signatures on the ballot initiative petition.

If the current process falls short of 110 percent, the state requires a “full check” of each signature, a task that likely cannot be completed by the state’s deadline of June 25. Counties have until June 24 to report to the state. (If the percentage falls below 95, the measure will not qualify.)

See here for the state’s official report on the count as of the end of work last Friday. Here are more details on how the initiative process works in California.

The California Stem Cell Report will have updated figures this evening or early tomorrow.

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