Redistricting effort reveals how politics is evolving

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting push – and the similar action in Texas that begat California’s effort – illustrates that in American politics today none of the old rules seem to apply.

How else would you explain a savvy career politician with a genuine shot at the White House openly advocating to disenfranchise the registered voters of a rival party?

In simpler times, that surely would have been an indefensible policy position, not to mention the likely end of a political career. But today, in Donald Trump’s America, it’s arguably a principled or even heroic stand to protect democracy and defend California on the national stage.

What’s more, the redistricting effort may also represent a golden opportunity for the all-but-official presidential candidate to bolster his standing with Democrats after he took heat over his controversial podcast.

“Newsom recognizes that the Democrats are looking for a fighter,” said Dan Schnur, the former political strategist who now teaches political communications at UC Berkeley and USC. “This allows him to not only reach a national Democratic audience but to remind California Democrats that even if they disagree with him on plenty of other things they’re completely with him on fighting Trump,” he said.

California Republicans are understandably angry, though most are exceedingly careful to not openly blame Trump for starting this whole process in July when he directed Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to gerrymander their districts to gain five GOP seats in the 2026 mid-terms. But one Republican, U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley, has subtly framed his stance as critical of the overall partisan jockeying that Newsom says forced his hand.

The Roseville congressman recently introduced federal legislation to ban all mid-decade redistricting nationwide, which also would block similar GOP efforts in Texas and elsewhere.  Kiley’s press release announcing the legislation primarily took aim at Newsom but also added that it would “stop a damaging redistricting war from breaking out across the country.”

Trump loyalists don’t typically contradict the president like that. Then again, Kiley is one of the five Republicans with his head on the chopping block. GOP strategist Rob Stutzman said the state’s Republican congressional delegation isn’t happy that the leader of their party has picked fight that could reduce their number by more than half.

Trump, however, appears to be undeterred, urging Republicans in Texas to finish their own efforts at redistricting to secure five more congressional seats for the GOP. “Please pass this Map, ASAP. THANK YOU TEXAS,” he said in a social media post.

Newsom has framed his redistricting plan as necessary because Trump doesn’t even pretend to follow the rules or conform to political decorum. But as hard as it is to fathom now, that wasn’t always the case with the MAGA champion. When he first was elected in 2016, Trump at least paid lip service to wanting to “be president to all Americans,” suggesting he too may have changed over time.

Perhaps that means the state of play today reflects the latest evolution of the factors that helped lead to Trump’s initial rise to power.

“We’re in an era where opinions and perspectives are so chaotic and unclear,” said Democratic consultant Bill Wong, when asked what Newsom’s redistricting plan may say about the current political environment. “We’re in a dysfunctional media ecosystem. So, like 30 years ago when I was doing this, you pretty much knew what the electorate was thinking and what their priorities were, and it was much easier to discern what their thoughts were on things because everything was a lot slower. It was editorial boards. It was one-on-one conversations.

“But now in the world social media and disinformation and algorithms, it is highly unclear to discern. Even polling is not the best as far as accuracy. So, we’re in unprecedented times. It’s hard to make a judgement on that. I think what California is doing is reactive to what is being done in DC and in Texas.”

Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who counts redistricting reform as one of his political legacies, has already said he’s gearing up to campaign against Newsom’s redistricting plan. But whether the action star can terminate Newsom’s play at the ballot box may be beside the point.

Schwarzenegger championed redistricting reform as a way to alleviate polarization in California. Justified or not, Newsom’s plan won’t help with that, but we may find in November that with Trump in the White House, the electorate just doesn’t care.

Capitol Weekly reporter Brian Joseph contributed to this piece.